(Images courtesy of ariball.com)
The Kansas City Royals capped off a remarkable 2014 season with a postseason run for the record books, starting the run with an 8-0 start and forcing the Fall Classic all the way to seven games against Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants. But they did not win it all. So, what can the Royals do to get their one more win in 2015?
The first thing they did was compensate for the loss of “Big Game James” Shields and outfielder Nori Aoki with another $13.5 million annual investment in Alex Rios and the addition of pitchers Edinson Volquez and Kris Medlen, who is at the tail end of his recovery from Tommy John surgery. The other realization that the 2014 Royals offered Dayton Moore and the front office was that Billy Butler simply wasn’t as productive as they needed him to be. With that being said, they let him walk in free agency (later signing with the Oakland A’s) and acquired a very solid replacement, and perhaps an improvement, in Kendrys Morales.
A big gift the Royals received this year came not only in the offseason, but also earlier in the 1st round of the MLB Amateur Draft, when they signed TCU gunslinger Brandon Finnegan. Finnegan had a special 2014, leading TCU to the College World Series in Omaha, and 4 1/2 months and 13 Minor League appearances later, found himself pitching in the MLB World Series in Kansas City. Needless to say, the Royals didn’t take much of a hit this offseason when it comes to talent.
Below are the 2014 and projected 2015 lineups and rotations for the Royals, along with the salaries of their departed talent and their replacements:
2014 Lineup:
C- Salvador Perez
1B- Eric Hosmer
2B- Omar Infante
SS- Alcides Escobar
3B- Mike Moustakas
LF- Alex Gordon
CF- Lorenzo Cain
RF- Norichika Aoki/Jarrod Dyson
DH- Billy Butler
2014 Rotation:
1- James Shields
2- Yordano Ventura
3- Jason Vargas
4- Jeremy Guthrie
5- Danny Duffy
Swaps:
1- Alex Rios for Nori Aoki
2- Kendrys Morales for Billy Butler
3- Kris Medlen and Edinson Volquez for James Shields
Projected 2015 Lineup:
C- Salvador Perez
1B- Eric Hosmer
2B- Omar Infante
SS- Alcides Escobar
3B- Mike Moustakas
LF- Alex Gordon
CF- Lorenzo Cain
RF- Alex Rios/Jarrod Dyson
DH- Kendrys Morales
Projected 2015 Rotation:
1- Yordano Ventura
2- Edinson Volquez
3- Jason Vargas
4- Jeremy Guthrie
5- Kris Medlen
Salaries:
Aoki 2014- 1,950,000
Rios 2015- 13,500,000
Butler 2014- 8,000,000
Morales 2015- 6,500,000
Shields 2014- 13,500,000
Medlen 2015- 5,800,000
Volquez 2015- 7,500,000
New Addition to Bullpen: Brandon Finnegan* (September Call-Up)
Rios-Aoki:
Although Nori Aoki handles pitches in the middle part of the zone a tad bit better than Rios does, the pitchers at the big league level rarely attack good hitters down the middle of the plate. They tend to stay to the outside, which is where Rios has the upper hand over Aoki in driving such pitches around the field for a high average. In a sense of hitting to where the pitch is thrown, Rios has the upper hand.
Aoki has a bit of a more “spraying” mentality at the plate, so Aoki has the ability to slap singles to any part of the outfield. Aoki also possesses the ability to keep the ball in the infield and still get on base (especially with the bunt), so he disrupts infielder’s routines much more than Rios does. However, Rios has a much more powerful swing than Aoki, giving him the upper hand when it comes to the power numbers and extra base hits. Overall, the placement pattern of the two’s base hits is even.
(Aoki image courtesy of the Japan Times)
(Rios image courtesy of Star Telegram)
Even though Aoki seems to have a much more athletic finish than Rios, athletic does not always mean better. The only flaw one can point out about Rios’s finish could be the collapse of his back side, but that collapse is only minor and does not affect his swing pre and during contact for the most part. Although Aoki generates more acceleration and explosiveness coming out of the batter’s box with his follow through (leading to more infield hits), he does not get the full power he could possibly have, leading to the necessity for him to risk his presence on the base paths with stolen bases in order to get into scoring position. With Rios already having established speed, the edge in this one goes to the new Royal.
Prognosis: Improvement for the Royals
Morales-Butler:
**Morales was on-and-off in 2014, so I took his stats from 2013, his last full season.
Kendrys Morales’s biggest contribution to Kansas City will be another switch hitter to add to the arsenal. Even though Morales puts more balls over the fence in all areas of the ballpark, the majority of his hits that stay in the ballpark drop in front of the outfielders, letting them stay shallow and have more of a strategy than against Butler. However, the power numbers off of Morales’s bat are undeniable, so Morales takes the edge in this one.
Billy Butler had many more games played this year than Morales did in 2014, but among the hits that the each of them had, Butler showed a more consistent velocity off the bat on all of his pitches. Although Butler had a better contact point on offspeed than Morales, the higher consistency of velocity means for easier tracking off the bat, meaning Morales has a higher chance of getting on base.
Prognosis: Improvement for the Royals
Medlen-Shields:
**Medlen missed all of 2014 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Using 2013 statistics, last whole season.
Quick Note:
• Medlen: 5’10” 190. More prone to excessive energy put into arm than a heavier and taller pitcher.
• Shields: 6’4” 215. Has the ability to use his lower half and core much more than Medlen.
Shields’s big separation from Kris Medlen lies in his pitch arsenal and their velocities. Shields possesses 4 or 5 pitches that he can throw on a consistent basis, while Medlen only has 3. Shields also throws each pitch at a higher velocity than that of Medlen, and he also has more of a similarity in velocities, leading to more of a guessing game played by the hitter against Shields than against Medlen. Big advantage to Shields in this one.
Yes, Medlen is much more fastball-reliant than Shields is, but that might not be such a bad thing. He functions well using the fastball, and his increased his variety of pitches near the end of the season may have triggered his shoulder blowout. Shields largely takes the crown in this one, showing great command and confidence in all of his pitches.
Volquez:
Volquez does an outstanding job of missing low, if he misses at all. He did not miss up that often in the zone, as only 14% of his total pitches were in the upper third of the strike zone. The only complaint the Pirates could have made about Edinson Volquez last year was his easy excitability and his high-energy while on the rubber, which could have led to him leaving 10% of his pitches over the middle of the plate. If Volquez can come into Kansas City as the solid 2-man behind Ventura and control that energy into something he can use, he should contribute well in 2015.
Prognosis: The loss of James Shields was bound to happen, but Kansas City has done a great job rebounding.
Conclusion:
The Royals picked up only a few million dollars on the payroll for this upcoming year, but they definitely put more talent in the batter’s box. Yordano Ventura is ready to step up as the young ace of a relatively inexperienced pitching staff, with Medlen picking up the back end, neutralizing the loss of James Shields as best they could. Don’t be surprised to see some chilly games in Kansas City 10 months from now, and maybe even a trophy raised by this group of guys.
NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 1/24/15
By Jack McMullen
AriBall.com
