On January 21st, Max Scherzer became the second highest paid pitcher in MLB history. With another high caliber player off the market, James Shields is the last prominent player left in the free agency market. As predicted in my model, I have James Shields’ projected AAV to be worth $19 million. Over the course of a contract, this AAV projects to a 3-5 year contract worth ~$57-$95 million. However, from the rumors floating around, sources are projecting that Shields would be lucky to get a 3 year contract worth ~$50 million (1). Although Shields, at the beginning of free agency, was angling for a 5 year contract worth ~$100 million, his value has seemed to depreciate in the eyes of many MLB teams. With Shields’ projected to sign at the end of the week, it is worth arguing whether Shields can prove to be a valuable commodity for MLB teams.
Over the course of James Shields’ career, he has been the model of consistency. With eight consecutive 200 inning seasons and tons of playoff experience, there is no arguing that Shields is the best starting pitcher available in the free agency market. However, his consistency goes beyond the reputation bestowed upon him. It is actually reflected in his pitching as well. With a fastball predominantly ranging from 91-94 MPH, no one would ever mistake James Shields as a flame thrower. Yet, in 2014, Shields proved to be consistent and deceptive with his three most used pitches; the fastball, changeup, and cutter (Figure 1). By having relatively the same release point for these three pitches, Shields is able to be more deceptive with his pitches as batters are less able to recognize his pitch type. In addition, this set of data provides hope for Shields’ future projectability because, with his high volume pitches being very deceptive, Shields can rely less on velocity to get batters out. Another piece of data that shows how good James Shields is his K/BB ratio. Although he has shown above-average control in the past, this past season Shields had a BB/9 of 1.74. This statistic may look a little fluky as he has never posted a BB/9 rate below 2 in his 9 year career (2). However, his vert. break/hor. break graph show that he was superbly consistent with his fastball, changeup, and cutter in 2014. As illustrated in Figure 2, it is quite amazing to see the clusters for each pitch, which illustrate Shields’ outstanding control. Beyond his peripherals, there is a reason why James Shields is nicknamed “Big Game”. It is not that he has pitched at a hall of fame level in the postseason or in pressure situations. The moniker is reflected in his work ethic (3). As a perfectionist and leader, he has held prominent roles in the rotations of overachieving teams that have made the World Series. Although qualitative in nature, these characteristics of James Shields cannot be ignored. With a fantastic work ethic, Shields can provide the necessary veteran leadership for success in the regular season and postseason.
Figure 1: Over the course of the 2014 season, James Shields displayed consistent release points for his fastball, changeup, and cutter. By having a consistent delivery, Shields was able to be very deceptive in his pitching.
Figure 2: With each set of clusters for his fastball, changeup, and cutter being highly bunched together, James Shields showed in 2014 that he had a high level of control of these pitches. In addition, this impressive set of clusters provides insight into his lowest BB/9 in his career.
Although James Shields has been super consistent in his tenure with the Tamba Bay Rays and Kansas City Royals, one has to wonder if a decline in performance should be expected in the near future. In general, three main points suggest this decline may be on the horizon. First, James Shields is going into his Age 33 season. As a workhorse for many years with 8 consecutive seasons of 200+ innings, his consistency will not last forever. By looking at Shields’ spin rates and strikeout rates over the past 5 seasons, “Big Game” Shields clearly did not have his best stuff in 2014. More specifically, most of his secondary pitches such as his curveball, slider, and cutter suffered significant decreases in spin (rpm) and were at their lowest this past season (Figure 3). Even though Shields was able to be very successful earlier in his career with low strikeout rates, his recent declining strikeout rate coupled with an increasing contact rate raise red flags. His FIP for 2014 was 3.59, which would be considered fantastic. However, as a future predictor, this stat is relatively flawed. With FIP, being calculated by adding for each additional walk, Shields’ FIP is actually really skewed. During the same season, his K/BB rate was 4.09. If one factors that Shields’ BB/9 was an astonishing 1.74, his future FIP is not sustainable if his K/9 rate continues to decline and his BB/9 regresses toward his career average near 2.3 BB/9 (4).
With Max Scherzer recently signing with the Nationals for 7-years $220 million, the next best Starting Pitcher available on the market is James “Big Game” Shields. Although my econometric model projects James Shields should get in the vicinity of a $19 million AAV contract, it is most likely that he will not get the contract he had hoped for in the beginning of the offseason free agency period. His free agency case is still quite interesting because his strengths also act as his weaknesses, which have caused teams to be hesitant to sign him to a long-term deal. Throughout his career, Shields has exhibited veteran leadership, an excellent work ethic, and, most importantly, consistent results. While Shields has not experienced a noticeable decline in his performance, he is entering his age-33 season with eight consecutive 200 innings pitched seasons under his belt and declining peripheral ‘stuff’. This is a possible reason why Shields has had to wait till the end of the offseason free agency period to sign his new contract. With Starting Pitching being at a surplus and many question marks behind Shields’ future performance, the price for James Shields should theoretically go down and possibly make him a bargain. If a contending team like the Yankees, Cardinals, or Cubs were to sign Shields for 3 years, worth anything less than $57 million, the signing could prove to be wise and economical.
1. Todd, Jeff. "James Shields And The Difficulty Of Finding $50MM In February."MLB Trade Rumors. N.p., 03 Feb. 2015. Web. 05 Feb. 2015. .
2. "Baseball Statistics and Analysis | FanGraphs Baseball." Baseball Statistics and Analysis | FanGraphs Baseball. Fangraphs, n.d. Web. 05 Feb. 2015. .
3. Rohan, Tim. "James Shields, an Imported Ace, Is an Important Piece for the Royals." The New York Times. The New York Times, 29 Sept. 2014. Web. 05 Feb. 2015. .
4. "Baseball Statistics and Analysis | FanGraphs Baseball." Baseball Statistics and Analysis | FanGraphs Baseball. Fangraphs, n.d. Web. 05 Feb. 2015.
NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 02/04/15
By Sanjay Pothula
AriBall.com
