Photo by USA Today
Last season, Rafael Montero was the clear number two pitching prospect for the Mets behind Noah Syndergaard.
The difference between the two pitchers at the time was that Montero was more Major League ready and, in line, to contribute to the Mets’ starting rotation by the June-July time period.
Though Rafael Montero made his debut in early June against the Yankees, he struggled with his command.
In addition, Jacob DeGrom, who made his debut a couple of days after Montero’s debut, shocked the MLB with his dynamic performance en route to National League Rookie of the Year honors.
By the end of the season, Rafael Montero had flip-flopped between the Triple-A farm team and the Majors.
Heading into this season, any mention of Montero being part of the opening day starting rotation was out of the question.
However, with a season-ending injury to Zack Wheeler and a dominant spring, Montero has pushed himself into a fight for the last spot in the rotation against Dillon Gee.
The question remains if Rafael Montero can fulfill many pundits' expectations of being a Julio Teheran type of pitcher at the Big League level.
Last season’s struggles for Montero can be contributed to his ability to control his three pitch arsenal - fastball, changeup, and slider.
For the type of pitcher he is, Montero clearly does not rely on his stuff to get hitters out.
His average fastball velocity for his starts during the 2014 season was about 92 MPH and his spin rates were right in line with the league average.
Thus, his calling card, as a Baseball America Top 100 Prospect, has always been his command.
Yet, in his Major League debut, his control was all over the place.
In his 8 starts for the 2014 season, he had a 5.17 FIP coupled with nearly 5 walks per nine innings.
As shown in Figure 1, Montero’s command of all three pitches varied greatly as shown in the wide radius for all three pitches.
Figure 1
Looking Rafael Montero’s track record at the minor league level, a big part of his success can be attributed to attacking the strike zone.
In 16 starts for the Las Vegas 51s (Triple-A), Montero threw a first pitch strike 62% of the time. After throwing a first pitch strike, batters proceeded to struggle against Montero resulting in a batting average .239 and an OPS below .600.
In his 8 starts for the New York Mets, he threw a first-pitch strike 45% of the time and batters feasted on Montero with a batting average of .286 and an OPS above 1 as he fell behind in the count.
With last year’s mixed performance at the Major League level, the questions have only intensified whether Montero can be a middle of the rotation type of starter that the Mets had expected not long ago.
However, it is obvious that Rafael Montero has performed well and demonstrated many scout recognized skills at every level of the minor leagues.
Thus, this season will ultimately dictate whether Montero is a legitimate Major Leaguer.
During this spring training, Rafael Montero has reminded the Mets’ front office that he is still a quality prospect and worthy of consideration for the now open fifth starting rotation spot.
In his past 2 starts, Montero has given 1 run and struck out 10 batters in 10 innings of work.
Most importantly, he has not given up a walk and has shown to be dominant in both outings.
He has shown to be more comfortable with all three pitches and seems to be not relying too heavily on his fastball as he has shown in the past.
An interesting point brought up by Ron Darling was a comparison between Rafael Montero and Julio Teheran.
There are some similarities when it comes to the fact that Teheran relies on being deceptive rather than his velocity.
However, the huge difference, as stressed before, is that Teheran has been successful the past two seasons with a 3.5 WAR and 2.7 WAR by pounding the strike zone with his arsenal of pitches.
If Montero is given a starting role, the question is whether he can replicate the success that he has had at the minor league level.
Montero shares many of the same pitching characteristics as Julio Teheran of the Atlanta Braves.
However, Teheran has established Major League success with a higher first pitch strike percentage and a higher use of his secondary pitches.
References:
1. "BaseballSavant.com." Baseball Savant: Your Source For Advanced MLB Statistics. Baseball Savant, n.d. Web. 08 Mar. 2015.
2. "Baseball Statistics and Analysis | FanGraphs Baseball." Baseball Statistics and Analysis | FanGraphs Baseball. Fangraphs, n.d. Web. 05 Feb. 2015.
NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 04/01/15
By Sanjay Pothula
AriBall.com
