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By Sanjay Pothula

This past summer, the Cubs engaged in a bidding war between the Red Sox, Dodgers, and Giants for Jon Lester’s services. Ultimately, the Cubs signed Lester for a 6 year, $155 million deal, the most expensive contract in the club’s history. Based on my free agency regression model, Lester was overpaid by nearly $8 million per year. However, last season, Lester proved to be dominant in his tenure with the Red Sox and Athletics, respectively. In 219.2 innings, he pitched to the tune of a 2.46 ERA with 220 strikeouts and a FIP of 2.80. In his first three starts as a Cub, Lester has not been the dominant pitcher that the Cubs’ management and fans have expected. With the Cubs’ Wild Card hopes pinned on Lester’s role as an ace of the pitching staff, the question going forward is if Lester can regain the dominance that made him one of the best pitchers in MLB last season or if a sustained decline in performance is on the horizon for the 2015 season.

For many years, Jon Lester was a workhorse for the Red Sox by consistently compiling 200 inning seasons with above-average peripheral statistics. However, last season, Lester evolved into a dominant pitcher that essentially put himself in a category amongst the elite pitchers in the league. After averaging about 3 WAR a season, last season represented a huge jump in performance with a 5.6 WAR. This jump in WAR can be attributed to a higher strikeout rate (7.47 K/9 to 9.01 K/9) and a reduction in walks (2.83 BB/9 to 1.97 BB/9). Although his velocity has decreased over the course of his career (Figure 1), he became an elite pitcher in 2014 because of his devastating spin rates (Figure 2) coupled with his change in approaching right-handed batters.

Figure 1

Figure 2

In 2014, Jon Lester began attacking right-handed batters with his fastball and cutter on the inner portion of the plate (Figure 3). With already above-average spin rates, his change in pitching philosophy helped lead him to a higher strikeout rate and a significant increase in his swinging strike % (8.4% to 9.9%). Right-handed batters hit with a .227 batting average and an OPS of .617, a significant improvement from 2013 (Figure 4).

Figure 3 Percent of Pitches to Right-Handed Hitters from 2013 to 2014

Figure 4

Credit: Fangraphs

Through Jon Lester’s first three starts, he has compiled a 6.89 ERA and has been hit hard in all of his outings with a WHIP of 1.79 and a line drive percentage 20% above his career norm. For the Cubs’ faithful and management, they can breathe a sigh of relief because his problems seem to stem from command issues and not any underlying issues (i.e. injury) going forward. Comparing last season to this season, Lester’s spin rates/velocity are similar and there seems to be no evident decline. The main problem is that, against right handed batters, many of his fastballs and cutters are hanging over the middle of the plate rather than breaking in on the inner portion of the strike zone (Figure 5). In his three starts, right-handed batters are teeing off on his fastball and cutter with a .387 batting average and an OPS of 1.072 and .778, respectively. This issue going forward seems to be not a huge concern for two reasons. First, with David Ross, who has caught Jon Lester for many years behind the plate in Chicago, there seems to be no reason for any deviation behind the pitching philosophy from last season that made him so successful. As you can see in Figure 6, of the hits Lester has given up to righties, Ross has set up his glove on the inner portion of the plate, and Lester has just not been precise with his command. Second, Lester never got a chance to really stretch out his arm during spring training. After experiencing a case of “dead-arm”, Lester did not pitch in a real game for nearly three weeks. When, Lester pitched in spring training, he pitched about 2 to 3 innings at a time, so arm fatigue is still an issue at this early junction of the season. As for his “supposed” issue with pickoffs, the sample size of the 2015 season is too small to make any conclusions about Lester having trouble with pitching with men on base. In 2014, in 219.2 innings of work, he did not attempt a single pickoff. Although the stolen base percentage against him (76.2%) was below the lefty MLB pitchers’ average (67.6%), Lester’s rate statistic was still fairly comparable to the MLB pitcher average (72.8%) (4). His pickoff move may not be strong for a left-handed pitcher. Yet, the issue of the pickoff seemingly figures to not play a huge role in Lester’s performance in the future. With men on base, hitters have hit .243 with a .696 OPS over the course of Lester’s career. Jon Lester’s pickoff blunders have seemingly been exasperated by his big media presence in the playoffs, Boston, and Chicago. More importantly, with more innings under his belt, his peripherals suggest that his command will improve as the season goes on, and we will begin to see the elite-form of Jon Lester again. With an above-average FIP of 2.86 and a high BABIP of .434, there seems to be no reason why Lester cannot change around his fortunes in Cubs’ blue.

Figure 5: Percent of Pitches to Right-Handed Hitters from 2014 to 2015

Figure 6: Before/After

Credit: MLB Advanced Media

At the moment, Jon Lester is the perfect buy-low candidate because, as Lester begins to compile more innings, his results should improve as a matter of better command of his fastball and cutter. As his velocity/spin rates suggest, a decline in performance should not be expected in the near-future. Once Jon Lester begins to command his fastball and cutter on the inner portion of the strike-zone better against right-handed hitters, baseball fans will be reminded of the same pitcher that dominated MLB last season. So, for the Cubs’ faithful and management, patience is key.

References:
1. "Baseball Reference." Baseball-Reference.com. Baseball Reference, n.d. Web. 14 Apr. 2015.
2. Bradford, Rob, and Alex Speier. "Sources: Dodgers Have Serious Interest in Jon Lester, Poised for Potential Late Negotiating Push." Full Count RSS. WEEI.com, 3 Dec. 2014. Web. 24 Apr. 2015.
3. "Baseball Statistics and Analysis | FanGraphs Baseball." Baseball Statistics and Analysis | FanGraphs Baseball. N.p., n.d. Web. 24 Apr. 2015.
4. Lindbergh, Ben. "SimCity: Calculating the Worst-Case Cost of Jon Lester's Pickoff Aversion." Grantland. ESPN, 09 Apr. 2015. Web. 24 Apr. 2015.
5. Sielski, Mike. "The Dastardly 'Dead-Arm Syndrome'" WSJ. Wall Street Journal, 11 May 2011. Web. 24 Apr. 2015.
NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 04/24/15

By Sanjay Pothula
AriBall.com

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