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Decade and MLB consultant for over two decades) and Fred Claire (World Series-winning general
manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers and member of the club’s front office for 30 years.)

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By now, the story is familiar. On June 22, the Dodgers were 9.5 games back of the division-leading Arizona Diamondbacks, and 12 games under .500. The team went on to win 42 of their next 50 games, amassing an insurmountable division lead and winning the division series in 4 games over the Braves before dropping a tough 6-game NLCS against the Cardinals. The rocket fuel that powered this Dodger ascent was none other than Cuban phenomenon Yasiel Puig, who burst into the league with an unprecedented first month--his 44 hits are second only to Joe Dimaggio. Puig continued his hot hitting throughout the year, posting a 160 WRC+. In addition, I would be loathe not to mention his contributions on the field, where the rocket launcher attached to his shoulder was responsible for some of the best throws all year. After a short time, runners stopped trying to go first to third against Puig.

But during the offseason, controversy swirled around Puig. His play-hard style apparently extends beyond baseball--he was arrested for driving 110 mph on a freeway, and when he arrived at camp overweight, concern mounted. Considering his astronomical .383 BABIP and his dismal 5-22, 10 strikeout performance in the NLCS, many sober analysts predicted regression. Cardinals pitchers had obviously figured him out, throwing first-pitch balls that he still hacked at and then attacking him with sliders away that he seemed incapable of taking. Dodger fans had seen this before: Matt Kemp hit 4 home runs over 10 games in his 2006 debut, but fell off dramatically once pitchers discovered that same hole in his swing. Puig's proclivity for swinging at everything seemed destined to keep him from finding his rookie success again.

As of this writing, Yasiel Puig has the second-highest batting average in baseball. His triple slash of .344/.442/.623 bests last year's .319/.391/.534 in every way. His WRC+ is 198. Opposing teams have intentionally walked him for the chance to pitch instead to Adrian Gonzalez. In short, Yasiel Puig has not regressed. He hasn't even stayed the same. By every offensive metric, he has gotten better.

The obvious question is how? The biggest factor in Puig's improvement has to be plate discipline. Last year, Puig walked 8.3% of the time and struck out 22.5% of the time. This year, both of those numbers are trending in a better direction: his BB% is up to 12%, and he has gone against the baseball-wide increase in strikeouts, cutting them to 18.9%. This is attributable to his developing a better eye at the plate. Below are the charts of every pitch he swung and missed at in 2013 and thus far in 2014.

These charts tell a clear story: Puig is swinging at fewer pitches overall, and especially fewer pitches low. For any baseball player not named Vladimir Guerrero, pitches outside of the zone are going to result in worse contact and thus worse production. Most of the balls that Puig saw outside of the zone were low, away, or both. A hitter chasing low and away, if he touches the ball, is likely to ground out to second base or pop up to short right field. His 2013 spraychart supports this: notice the cluster of groundouts to second base (green) and flyouts to short right field (blue).

But Puig has adjusted, and the same pattern does not hold in 2014--instead, far more of his groundouts are to the pull side. The same is true of his flyballs-- he has already hit two home runs to the dead pull side, against none last year. The tradeoff is seen in his opposite-field home runs--only one has been truly opposite-field.

Puig's batting averages on balls hit to the outfield shows a similar shift, especially the numbers hit to a particular side.

In 2013, Puig hit 67 balls to left field and 69 to right field. This year, in half the plate appearances, he has hit 34 to left but only 22 to right. The astounding 1.000 batting average to the dead pull side is indicative of the high quality of his pull-side hits--his WRC+ this year to the pull side is 288 (last year's was 254). The tradeoff has been worse contact to the opposite field, where his WRC+ drops to 137.

It's not unusual for young players to come up and rake for a few weeks until pitchers adjust to them. Last year, Puig wasn't able to adjust to a new angle of attack, and paid the price late in the season. But over the offseason he dramatically improved his plate discipline skill. By closing his biggest weakness, Puig has transformed himself from a spectacularly talented but raw rookie into a true MVP candidate.

NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 06/01/14

By Sam Whitefield
AriBall.com

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