Former Chicago Cubs ace, Matt Garza, had been talked about for weeks leading up to the trade deadline before eventually being traded to the Texas Rangers. After starting the season on the disabled list, his 6-1 record in 2013 had been hyped up enough for Garza to be one of the top names on the market. Although he is coming off a 5-7 record and missed the last two months of the 2012 season, Garza has shown to be a dominant pitcher in 2013. He allowed a total of 19 runs in his first five starts, but only allowed 6 runs in the last six.
With the use of AriBall data analysis, I was able to see what Garza has been doing differently in his last six starts as well as significant changes in the last few years.
Through the first five games of the season, Garza threw his slider an average 18% of the time. He also threw his changeup between one and five times each game, which he has almost eliminated completely since then. Not one of his fifteen changeups thrown has directly resulted in an out. Additionally, 68% of pitches in his first four starts were fastballs. The average velocity of each pitch has stayed consistent throughout the season, but one main difference beginning with his sixth start is that there has been an increased percent of sliders thrown, which is back to a rate he had been throwing it in previous years.
In his first start when he did throw sliders at an increased rate, he allowed only 1 hit in five innings pitched. The first 19 ER allowed occurred in the next four games when the number of sliders thrown decreased.
In his last six starts, he is still throwing a fastball on average 68% of the time, but his slider has increased from 18% to 25% of his pitches. This dominant pitch has forced batters to swing and miss 43% of the time (MLB average: 28%), with the majority being thrown low and away to right-handed batters. Even though his slider has success this year, it rotates 33% less than the MLB average. It may not be a sharp break, but only 11% of sliders thrown have resulted in a base hit.
Garza has shown success in prior years, but is starting to rely more heavily on his fastball, which has increased 14% in just two years. To compensate for more fastballs being thrown, he has almost completely abandoned the changeup. With five years of experience pitching in the American League, Garza should continue having a strong year with the Texas Rangers.
NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 7/23/13
By Danny Malter, AriBall.com Sportswriter
