On April 18, a friend of mine went to Petco Park to watch the Padres take on the San Francisco Giants.
I distinctly remember researching San Diego's at-the-time unheralded Tyson Ross, and thinking that if
he could consistently throw first-pitch strikes, he would do well. His first pitch to Angel Pagan was a
strike, and though Pagan hit a ground-rule double, Ross also threw strikes to the next 3 batters.
I sent a message: "watch out, Ross is on today." I was right--Pagan's hit was one of only 4 (against 9 strikeouts)
that Ross would give up in 8 innings of shut-out ball. I also remember thinking "maybe I should write
an article about Ross, inspired by this game." I didn't. Then I started to regret ignoring him. "If only,"
I thought, "he would perform some other remarkable feat, then I could write the article he deserves!"
On July 24, Tyson Ross struck out 11 batters in only 6 innings, good for a one-game K/9 of 16.5.
That feels remarkable enough to warrant correcting my error.
Ross hasn't just had a couple of great games--he's been phenomenal overall. As of this writing,
Tyson Ross has a better xFIP than Johnny Cueto, Max Scherzer, or Adam Wainwright. Both his ERA and
xFIP are 13th best in the majors. Like Jose Fernandez did with the Marlins, he provides a reason to
watch the Padres every 5 days. How is he achieving this success?
When I looked at Ross early this season, a couple numbers jumped out at me. His K/9 is currently 8.69,
slightly up from last years' 8.57. His BB/9 is 3.03, slightly down from last years' 3.17. That's the mark
of a pitcher with great stuff but command issues. Ross' game log backs up that impression--in the seven
games in which Ross has pitched poorly (6 of them he didn't finish the 6th inning and the other he gave up 5 runs),
his first-strike percentage is 52%. In his seven best games (all 7+ innings including 1 complete game),
his first-strike percentage is 60%.
These control issues are rather surprising, considering that none of Ross' pitches are exceedingly fast or move
all that much--both his fastball and his slider (which together account for 97% of his pitches) have below-average
spin, as can be seen below.
In all likelihood, it's not the pitches that Ross is working against, but himself. His scouting reports
highlighted inconsistent delivery mechanics, which could well be a product of his 6'6" frame. Padres.com
attributes his improved control with San Diego (he walked 4.54 with Oakland in 2012 but only 3.17 after
moving to the Padres in 2013) to mechanical tweaks proposed by pitching coach Darren Balsley, including
lengthening Ross' stride.
This picture (taken at Dodger Stadium on September 1, 2013 by Gary A. Vasquez of USA Today Sports), shows Ross'
new, longer stride. Throwing from this much of an upright position might explain Ross' continued control struggles.
In a game against Kansas City on June 22, Clayton Kershaw was having trouble locating his fastball,
one of the best pitches in baseball. He compensated by switching to his curveball and slider, and pitched
an 8-inning shutout. That's one of the advantages of being a multiple-pitch pitcher--when things go wrong,
there's a backup.
But Tyson Ross only has two pitches, fastball and slider. When they're both working, the slider is a brilliant
swinging-strike pitch. Look at how many whiffs he's gotten with it low and away.
Taking a look at Ross' zone chart below, it's obvious what he's trying to do--fastball up and in, slider low and away.
The fastball is a pitch-to-contact pitch, thrown middle to middle-up and generally put in play. He gives up hits,
but there are a lot more instances where it's hit into an out. The batting averages for the top 6 zones
(the ones where he puts his fastball) are in the mid .200s, a very livable rate. The averages for low and away,
in and out of the strike zone, are .111, .159, and .143, testament to his slider's quality.
Ross has steadily improved as the season has gone on: in his last game (July 24 against the Cubs) he got 11
strikeouts in only 6 innings, and he's had 7 quality starts since giving up 5 runs against Seattle on June 16.
At least some of this can probably be attributed to his velocity. This chart shows that both his fastball and
slider have improved by about 2 mph each since the beginning of the year.
Granted, this kind of improvement over the course of the year is typical for pitchers. To me, it indicates that
Ross has reached his skillset's ceiling. Unless he can improve his control, his performance isn't likely to improve.
Fortunately for San Diego, so long as he can stay right where he is he represents a very valuable pitcher.
NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 07/25/14
By Sam Whitefield
AriBall.com
