While many criticized the large contract that the Dodgers (72-50) offered RHP Zack Greinke last off-season, his play has helped the team become a World Series favorite in 2013.
Greinke, 29, has been a welcome addition to the Dodgers pitching rotation. The Dodgers, who have gone 42-8 in their last 50 games and have now won ten games in a row, boast some of the brightest talent in the MLB. Perhaps more impressively for the right-handed pitcher, however, is that the Dodgers are now 9-1 in his ten most recent starts following his win against the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday.
“This guy of late has been the total package—good velocity and command; great breaking point; and pitching with confidence where he attacks the zone instead of throwing a lot of pitches off the plate,” said former Dodgers GM and AriBall partner Fred Claire. “A lot of it is confidence with success.”
First 10 Starts: 4-2; 3.79 ERA; 57 IP, 43 K’s, 1.29 WHIP
Recent 10 Starts: 7-1, 2.38 ERA, 68 IP, 53 K’s, 1.15 WHIP
While win-loss record is often disputed as a viable baseball statistic, Greinke was 4-2 in his first ten starts this season. After his twentieth start Friday, Greinke is now 11-3 on the year.
So what’s changed since June 22 (following 33 days on the DL from April to May), when he completed his tenth start of the year?
While his release points for each pitch have stayed consistent all season, the new Dodgers star has lowered his ERA (from 3.79 to 3.02) and recorded 55% of the 96 strikeouts that he has earned this season. He has thrown a complete game, two-hit shutout (vs. Rockies, July 13) and he has beaten impressive teams such as the St. Louis Cardinals (70-52), the Tampa Bay Rays (69-52) and the Cincinnati Reds (69-54) during that stretch.
My research at AriBall.com has shown that the majority of his success has come from his new, improved fastball. His 90-93 MPH (54% of all pitches) fastball has caused batters to miss on 17% of all swings (MLB average: 10%) in 2013.
As the season has progressed for Greinke, so too has both the velocity and the reliance on his fastball.
During his first game of the season, Greinke had a fastball that clocked out at 90.7 MPH. In his first ten starts, the average velocity on his fastball was above 91.0 MPH just two times (May 27, June 16) and was even as low as 90.1 MPH in two different starts (June 1, June 22) this season. Considering the average fastball in the MLB is between 88.1-94.3 MPH, this mark is far from impressive.
Since June 22, however, the velocity of his fastball has been consistently above 91.0 MPH in every single start. In fact, in his win against the Cardinals on August 5, his fastball was even clocked with a velocity as high as 93.5 MPH. In his last three starts, Greinke has not had an average velocity on his fastball lower than 92.6 MPH.
While he threw just 21 fastballs (23% of pitches) on June 1 against Colorado, the pitch was his bread and butter against the Yankees (79% of pitches) on July 30 and the Rockies (71%) on July 13. In those games, he recorded a combined 16 strikeouts (seven and nine, respectively), and had two of his highest strikeout totals this season.
To compensate for increase usage of his fastball, Greinke has also wisely cut down on the usage of his cutter. His 85-89 MPH cutter has been his least effective pitch in 2013.
He has average control of his cutter, but very little spin (31% below MLB average) so far this season. While opposing hitters are batting a whopping .377 against the pitch, the cutter has been his second most popular at 19% (MLB average: 5%) of all pitches thrown.
Greinke threw 55 cutters (51% of all pitches) in a loss to the Rockies on June 1 and 26 cutters (21% of all pitches) in his loss against the Brewers on May 21, but has since cut back on the pitch.
In his three most recent starts, he has rarely thrown the pitch (12%, 15% and 12%) and has earned victories in all three matchups.
Opposing batters were hitting .271 with a .340 slugging percentage vs. Zack Greinke over 160 plate appearances in June. In July, however, opposing batters hit just .196 with a .272 slugging percentage extended over a simlar 161 plate appearances.
Perhaps an improvement in pitch location effectiveness has also lead to an improved performance from Zack Greinke in the second half of his season.
Greinke also developed a tendency to throw the first pitch “up” in the top third of the strikezone (108 pitches) during his first ten starts this season. Since June 22, however, Greinke has been able to lower that rate (99 pitches) and avoid the dangerous zone.
In his first ten starts, Greinke allowed 9 hits and recorded 21 outs on pitches thrown on the upper third of the plate. In his most recent ten starts, however, Greinke has allowed only 4 hits but has recorded 29 outs in the exact same zone.
Greinke has been stellar this season, and after 125.0 innings of successful play with the Dodgers, I would expect to see his numbers continue to impress as the Dodgers come closer to the playoffs.
NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 8/18/13
