Felix Hernandez is unquestionably a great pitcher. He won the AL Cy Young Award in 2010 as a 24-year-old, and he
is fifth in fWAR (via FanGraphs, using FIP) since he made his debut in 2005. He is still just 27 years old, which
makes him younger than Jeff Samardzija. And he is having one of his best seasons this year, as he’s leading the majors
in innings pitched and has a 2.47 ERA.
There are weird anomalies, though. His velocity is down, which we normally associate with diminishing effectiveness.
Hernandez, however, is striking out more batters (25.7%) this year than he ever has in the past, and is doing it while
also posting the lowest walk rate (5.4%) of his career.
His velocity, which peaked in the high-90s in 2007, is down to 90-92 this year.
Clearly, he has learned to pitch with a lower fastball velocity. But where has that success come from?
First, his release points are all highly consistent, which helps him deceive hitters, who are unable to pick up early
hints that would reveal what pitch is coming.
Second, he gets a lot of movement on all of his pitches. As you can see in the chart below, even his fastball
gets several inches of horizontal break, and his sinker and changeup get as much horizontal movement as his wipeout
curveball (although in the opposite direction).
This has translated into success much as one might expect. The incredible arm-side run he gets from his fastball,
sinker and changeup is the key to his dominance against lefties (.292 wOBA this year), as hitters have been entirely
unproductive when attacking pitches on the outer third.
As you can see, when he keeps those pitches down in the zone, lefties struggle mightily.
His approach has been different against righties, as one might imagine. Instead of focusing on arm-side movement,
he tries to stay down and in.
In doing so, he utilizes his pitches that have glove-side movement—his cutter, slider, and curveball—in addition
to his fastball. This type of side-to-side movement enables him to use that pitches that move in on the hands of
righties, and thus away from their barrels.
The main overriding factor we see against both lefties and righties is Hernandez’s devotion to staying down in the zone.
This has long been a key to his performance, as he has a 54% career ground ball rate. By keeping pitches low in the zone,
he has limited home runs as well: never in his career has he posted a home-run rate above the league average.
I’ve already detailed where his success has come from this year, but perhaps more interesting is how he’s changed over
the course of his career. As mentioned above, he relied heavily on an elite fastball early in his career. But as he
lost velocity, he had to compensate and maintain effectiveness, which he has done by adding a cutter and sinking two-seam
fastball.
In 2007, Hernandez utilized his mid-90s fastball and never featured a sinker; instead, he threw the standard four-pitch mix
of fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup.
The next year, he introduced the sinker, but there was still a substantial gap between its velocity and that of his fastball.
Over time, though, the sinker has become almost interchangeable with his fastball in terms of usage and velocity;
but its dramatic movement has made it more effective and allowed Hernandez to overcome his declining fastball velocity.
Whether or not Felix will cap off this season with his second Cy Young Award is still yet to be determined; after all,
there are a number of qualified candidates. But suffice it to say that his transition from flame-throwing teenager to
dominant ace has been a resounding and unmitigated success.
NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 8/20/13
By Seth Victor
AriBall.com
