AJ Ellis: A Sophisticated Approach Has Made
the Dodgers Catcher a Valuable Player

By Seth Victor, AriBall.com

AriBall is the collaborative effort of over half of all MLB teams with Ari Kaplan (Caltech Alumni of the
Decade and MLB consultant for over two decades) and Fred Claire (World Series-winning general
manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers and member of the club’s front office for 30 years.)

Media is welcome to use this information. We would ask for a reference and, if possible, a link to AriBall.com.

###

Catcher AJ Ellis has become a minor celebrity for Los Angeles Dodger fans since his ascension to the starting role at the beginning of 2012. They began a grassroots campaign to get him to the All Star Game in Kansas City last year (ajellis2kc.com) — the basis of which was his fifth-ranked OBP among all catchers. And even though that attempt failed, he remains a fan favorite. Fans love him for multiple reasons, but the foremost is his performance.

A recent article in the Los Angeles Times brought his talents to the forefront. Kevin Baxter discussed his noteworthy plate discipline:

       Among National League players with at least 300 plate appearances, no one is averaging more pitches per appearances than
       Ellis. That has not only helped the Dodgers run up the pitch count for opposing starters, but it has helped Ellis compile
       a .338 on-base percentage, nearly 80 points higher than his batting average.

Ellis is having another solid season: among all catchers with at least 300 plate appearances, he ranks twelfth in wRC+ (FanGraphs’ cumulative offensive measurement). This number is actually down from last year, when he was sixth. But the point still stands, as Ellis is basically a league-average hitter (regardless of position), and is doing it while providing good defense behind the plate.

Per the Times article noted above, the secret to Ellis’s success is his patience. He has swung at the first pitch only 45 times in 370 plate appearances, and when he does swing, the pitches tend to be mostly around the plate.

This selectivity is indicative of his advanced approach. As a hitter with good bat-to-ball skill (career 85.2 contact%, with a major league average around 80 percent for those years) but not tremendous raw power (career .115 ISO), this is symptomatic of his tendency to only swing at pitches he can drive. He does not have the natural strength of power hitting catchers such as Wilin Rosario or Brian McCann, so he has to be smarter at the plate.

Ellis’s success can be seen in other places as well: for his career, he has roughly equal splits against both right-handed (career .736 OPS) and left-handed pitchers (career .728 OPS). For this season, that pattern holds true again, as the Dodger catcher has a .255/.325/.355 line against righties and a .212/.361/.348 line against lefties.

A final area of note is Ellis’s ability to go the other way, particularly against righties. As the spray charts below indicate, Ellis likes to pepper the ball to the opposite field, which again demonstrates excellent awareness as well as his ability to stay behind the ball.

The Dodgers have been on an incredible run, and while Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig have been the headliners on offense, let’s not forget about the steady hand the team has behind the plate. Ellis is truly a great story, as he has become a big-league regular after not having a full-time job until age 31.

NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 8/31/13

By Seth Victor
AriBall.com