Edinson Volquez: Improved Pitch Selection
Could Help Dodgers in MLB Postseason

By Bryan Kalbrosky, AriBall.com

AriBall is the collaborative effort of over half of all MLB teams with Ari Kaplan (Caltech Alumni of the
Decade and MLB consultant for over two decades) and Fred Claire (World Series-winning general
manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers and member of the club’s front office for 30 years.)

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When the Los Angeles Dodgers signed former San Diego Padres right-handed pitcher Edinson Volquez, they had the National League pennant in mind.

The Dodgers front office believes that Volquez could be an asset to their chances in a run at the World Series, knowing the value of pitching in the playoffs. With the Los Angeles Dodgers and the incredible offensive run support that they provide, Volquez would be more likely to find a home to return to an effective pitching career in the majors if he would make more effective decisions in pitch selection with the Dodgers.

Volquez, 30, was once considered to be one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball and was even selected to participate in the 2008 MLB All-Star Game during his rookie season with the Reds. He finished 2008 (17-6, 3.21 ERA) with an impressive 9.5 K/9 and 1.327 WHIP.

“Edinson Volquez and Carlos Marmol are with the Dodgers for the same reason: to rediscover the form that once made them All-Stars, and, perhaps, to be part of something special in October,” wrote Dylan Hernandez in the Los Angeles Times.

While his inconsistent pitch selection allowed him to show extreme vulnerability earlier this season, the front office believes that Dodgers pitching coach Rick Honeycutt can both pinpoint and solve that problem.

The Dodgers signed Volquez, whose ERA was as high as 6.01 at the time, on August 28. The team then brought him into a relief role for an inning, marking his first appearance two days later.

”Volquez has premier, top flight stuff,” said one MLB scout. “But he has almost no usability of the stuff.”

Where Volquez has struggled the most, it seems, has been using his pitches well this season.

In the Dodgers front office, for example, they would like to avoid outings for Volquez such as his start with the Padres against the Rockies on June 7, when he was pulled after allowing nine earned runs on eleven hits through only 2.1 innings.

While Volquez usually only throws his fastball (which has as 26% fewer rotations per minute than the average MLB fastball) on 19% of pitches and with his sinker an additional 35% of pitcher, in this game he used his fastball on 73% of pitches. Subsequently, the velocity on his fastball dipped and his effectiveness was the worst it had been all season.

Fortunately, he avoided his fastball over the course of his next few games (he only threw his fastball 20%+ of pitches two times over his next twelve starts) before being blown up again after for eight runs after hitting 48% of pitches as fastballs on August 12.

Volquez, however, is one of only six players in Major League Baseball to have negative “Pitch-Type Linear Weights” for each of his pitches, according to Jeff Suppan. Additionally, his curveball is considered to be the worst curveball in baseball this season (-12.6). It also has been his least effective pitch in 2013, and batters are hitting .412 when the pitches are in play.

The ineffectiveness of his curveball is baffling to many scouts across Major League Baseball, considering its spin is 28% above the MLB average.

While his first start with the Dodgers resulted in a loss against the Colorado Rockies on September 4, the team seemed satisfied with his game. Volquez allowed four earned runs on six hits through four innings pitched.

"He threw the ball outstanding His command was great,” said Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis. “He used all of his pitches well. The ball has great life in the strike zone.”

Additionally, the velocity on his fastball (which was clocked as low as 91.1mph on August 6) had spiked to faster than even his opening day speed (92.5mph) to an impressive mark of 93.5mph.

His sinker, which is one of the fastest in MLB at 92.3mph, had regained speed and was also clocked at 93.5mph just one month after being marked 90.7mph in August.

Volquez was also wise to finally avoid the usage of his horribly ineffectiveness curveball. While he used his curveball on 38% of pitches on August 6, he lowered that mark to only 11% of pitches in his first start for the Dodgers.

Fortunately, finding the strike zone has not been a problem for Volquez this season. 56% of his pitches have been strikes this season, including 58% of first pitches to batters faced. His command has also been above average this season, considering he has kept his first pitch down 42% of the time (MLB average: 25%) in 2013.

For the Dodgers, their hope for success in signing Volquez may prove to be successful indeed as he struck out five batters and allowed only one walk against the Diamondbacks in his second start for the Dodgers.

“I can understand the Dodgers liking this guy and thinking they can have the key to the castle and straighten this guy out,” added the MLB scout, arguing that Volquez may indeed be able to straighten out his game and help the Dodgers in a playoff run in the postseason.

NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 9/13/13

By Bryan Kalbrosky, AriBall.com