Joey Votto: Why the Cincinnati Reds First
Baseman is Facing Unfair Criticism

By Seth Victor, AriBall.com

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Decade and MLB consultant for over two decades) and Fred Claire (World Series-winning general
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Joey Votto has recently come under fire for not driving in enough runs. Media has criticized him for being too passive with men on base, for taking too many walks when the team needs him to be a “run-producer.”

This criticism, of course, is ridiculous

Per FanGraphs’ wOBA and wRC+, Votto is the sixth best hitter in baseball this year. wOBA is a cumulative offensive statistic that attempts “to measure a hitter’s overall offensive value, based on the relative values of each distinct offensive event.” wRC+ adjust wOBA for park factors and league effect.

Votto is clearly an elite hitter. Since his debut in 2007, only two players have been better offensively: Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera. And yet, his own fan base has turned on him. Reds broadcaster Marty Brennaman critiqued Votto earlier this year: “he’s not paid to walk…he’s paid to drive in runs.”

The silliest thing about this is the idea that Votto is too passive. Like any great hitter, he gets paid a tremendous amount of respect when there are men on base. He has had less than half as many plate appearances with men in scoring position than he has without. In those situations, pitchers have refused to challenge him. With the bases empty, he has 14.1% walk rate and a 19.8% strikeout rate; with men in scoring position, those numbers flip to 25.6% and 17.6%. Those numbers point to something that is backed up by the pitch data: pitchers throw him more pitches out of the strike zone when he has an opportunity to hurt them. With runners in scoring position, 49% of the pitches he sees are outside the strike zone; without runners in scoring position, that number drops to 44%.

Those values understate the difference, though. As the graphics below indicate, he sees far fewer pitches in the middle of the strike zone with men on second or third. Instead, those pitches are located in towards his hands, or out of the zone entirely.

   

Another common criticism is that Votto doesn’t expand the strike zone to try to get hits that would drive in runs. This, however, is untrue. He has a tendency to chase pitches low and/or away in ALL situations, including when there are men in scoring position.

   

Finally, critics are overlooking the fact that Votto—like many players—does not hit pitches outside the strike zone very well. For the season, he is a combined 8-for-102 on plate appearances ending on balls out of the zone.

Given those numbers, why would he attempt to hit pitches that will be called balls anyway and therefore give his team a positive outcome?

Votto is an incredibly cerebral hitter who is in fact aware of the criticism, as he admitted during a recent interview with The Sporting News. And yet, he does not plan on changing his approach, and with good reason. The Reds first baseman ranks fourth in Baseball-Reference’s WAR and tenth in FanGraphs WAR, and is consistently one of the best players in baseball.

NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 9/15/13

By Seth Victor
AriBall.com