On Tuesday, October 1, the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates will face off in a win-or-go-home wild card playoff.
Taking the mound for the two teams will be their respective aces: Johnny Cueto for Cincinnati and Francisco Liriano for
Pittsburgh.
Cueto has been one of the Reds’ best pitchers for the last three years. Since 2011, he has posted a 2.61 ERA while making
68 starts for a team that has gone to the playoffs each of the last two seasons. His biggest problem, though, is evident
from the above statement: he has made just 68 starts in three years. He made 33 last year, but just 24 in 2011 and only
11 this year. However, he’s been very effective while on the field.
A clue to his success is his combination of movement and velocity. His average fastball is about 92 miles per hour, and
when it is paired with a mid-80s changeup, the velocity difference is enough to make the combination devastating (.209
batting average against this year).
But the real key is his movement. He has a low release point (at just over five feet), which enables him to get around the ball and create significant horizontal movement.
His fastball and changeup both get over five inches of arm-side run, so while his slider and cutter are more ordinary, they look more effective in comparison.
One thing to watch for is his location. He likes to work away to all hitters, but especially to lefties. This enables him to stay away from lefties’ sweet spot of down and in, while also emphasizing his own natural movement, which—if located improperly—can run right back onto a lefty’s barrel. However, because he keeps the ball out of the middle of the zone (and, more often than not, off the plate entirely), he mitigates that risk.
On the other side, the Pirates will turn to Francisco Liriano in their first home playoff game in over 20 years.
Whether or not Liriano has been their best pitcher this season is a legitimate question: his ERA is lower than either
Gerrit Cole’s or AJ Burnett’s, but the defense-independent numbers (FIP and xFIP) favor Burnett.
Liriano, though, is clearly the best choice to start this game because lefties have had no success against him this
year, and the Reds’ three best hitters bat from the left side: Joey Votto, Shin-Soo Choo, and Jay Bruce. He gives
the Pirates the best chance to neutralize the top of the lineup and put a ton of pressure on Brandon Phillips, the lone righty.
Liriano’s success this year has come from his slider, which he has relied on heavily. Like Cueto, he has struggled with
injuries in his career (he hasn’t made 30 starts in a season since 2010), but this season he has gone back to what worked
for him in his early days with Minnesota. He mixes in changeups to keep hitters off balance, but he is primarily a
fastball/slider pitcher.
The key to if Liriano can defeat the Reds will be—as mentioned above—whether or not he can neutralize the trio of lefties.
And as would be expected, he likes to throw the slider down and away. If he can bury it in the opposite batter’s box on
Tuesday, he will be in good position. Problems arise when he leaves the slider up and over the plate; all of the hits he
has allowed have been when he cannot get around it properly and leaves it in the zone.
One of Bud Selig’s goals when he created the second wild card was to maximize drama, and a one-game playoff certainly does
that. These two teams have each finished with over 90 wins, and the Pirates have collected their first winning season
since 1992. By any measure, both organizations have had successful regular seasons, but only one team will move on.
Who that will be depends on the right arm of Johnny Cueto and the left arm of Francisco Liriano.
NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 9/28/13
By Seth Victor
AriBall.com
