Due to the Chicago Cubs extraordinary defensive talent, Joe Maddon has one of the most unusual predicaments in baseball,
which is to decide where to play everybody on the field and where that player should bat in the lineup. For most managers,
each day brings about a fairly similar lineup with a few changes when a player takes a day off. However, the Cubs have a
lineup full of shortstops and center fielders with what seems to be an even mix of leadoff and power hitters.
Kyle Schwarber:
For the most part, Kyle Schwarber has handled himself well batting 2nd with a .874 OBS, but perhaps even more interesting
is how he performs offensively depending on his defensive position. Schwarber plays most of this games in left field, but
is actually most productive on the offensive side when he plays catcher. Whether Schwarber plays outfield or catcher, he
tends to bat second in the lineup, so one can rule out the assumption that his defensive position has something to do with
where he bats in the lineup. Instead, it may have to do with the fact that when Schwarber catches, he is more focused as a
batter and perhaps sees the ball better from the box. It would be unlikely for Schwarber to play catcher in the Cubs’ playoff
game considering that it is potentially the most important position on the field, but it would not be crazy if we do see
Schwarber with the gear on.
Chris Coghlan:
Nothing is unusual when Joe Maddon is your manager, so it should not be a surprise to say that Chris Coghlan has batted in
every single order of the lineup during the 2015 season. He batted 3rd in most of his at-bats, but also got a fair amount
of at-bats batting 6th and 7th. Coghlan seems to be a well-rounded hitter no matter where he bats in the order, but his
production batting 3rd is better than Bryant batting 3rd and therefore should have that spot in the lineup over Bryant
come time for the playoffs.
Kris Bryant:
Cubs fans may enjoy watching Kris Bryant bat 3rd in the lineup, but Bryant actually appears to be performing best in the
clean-up spot, or even batting fifth. The majority of his at-bats batting 4th occurred in his first 18 games of the season
and he seemed to bat 5th for the most of July and August. Given the fact that Joe Maddon has batted Bryant 3rd in his last
12 games, one may assume that it will be where he bats against the Pirates in the NL Wildcard game. However, based on his
offensive statistics, Bryant strikes out much more often batting 2nd or 3rd and is less productive at the top of the order
in regards to wOBA (weighted on-base average), OPS (on-base plus slugging) and BABIP (batting average on balls in play).
It may not be the popular decision around Chicago and seems unlikely based on the last few weeks, but Joe Maddon should
seriously consider batting Bryant lower in the lineup, preferably in the fifth spot.
Jorge Soler:
One of the most difficult decisions that Maddon will have to face when creating his lineup (assuming that Montero catches)
is which of his outfielders to leave out of the starting lineup. If Soler plays, the best option would be to keep Schwarber
on the bench to use later in the game as a replacement and use either Tommy La Stella or Chris Denorfia as a pinch hitter.
As well as Schwarber is playing, he is 0-9 on the year as a pinch hitter.
Javier Baez:
Javier Baez had limited at-bats during the 2015 season, but has been a critical piece to the Cubs run during September.
For somebody with so few Major League at-bats, Maddon has not shied away from batting Baez in almost every order spot thus far.
Most of his at-bats near the end of the season were batting 7th, 8th or 9th, but Baez is batting his best in
the middle of the lineup at the 6th spot with the few amount of plate appearances he has had.
Not only is his OBS far better in the 6th spot, but he hits the ball up the middle 50% of the time when batting 6th
compared to 20% of the time batting 8th or 9th. Interestingly, when Baez bats 6th, he also tends to play third base
giving Bryant the day off. Perhaps the thought of himself playing third base allows him to focus on hitting up the middle
rather than pulling the ball, but either way he will likely play second base in the Wild Card game.
Addison Russell:
Throughout the end of September and into early October, Maddon started to experiment with Russell batting 7th and 8th in the
lineup. The majority of his at-bats are in the nine-hole, so it is difficult for one to say with any significance that he
would be better placed somewhere else in the lineup. Especially considering that Jake Arrieta is a fairly decent hitting
pitcher, it seems to be the best option at keeping him 9th and let Arrieta bat 8th.
Optimal Lineup:
Below is what I feel are two optimal lineups for the Cubs going into the playoffs. It should be noted that this does not
take into account some important factors such as how Cubs players have done against Gerrit Cole or have performed historically
playing in Pittsburgh, but rather based on general data throughout the 2015 regular season.
NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 10/05/15
By Danny Malter
AriBall.com
