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In tonight's AL Wild Card matchup, the Yankees will be going up against one of the top pitchers in MLB in Houston Astros' Dallas Keuchel.
In their two previous matchups against the lefty, Keuchel has not given up a run. In addition, Keuchel has induced 20 groundballs and 21 strikeouts in 16 innings of work.
In other words, the ace of the Houston Astros' staff has been at his utmost dominance against the Yankees’ predominantly lefty batting lineup.
In totality of the season, Dallas Keuchel has been a top ten pitcher this season with a -1.55 ERPA (top 10 in MLB) and a 2.75 xFIP because of his ability to mix up his wide array of pitches and, most importantly, induce a ton of groundballs.
For the Yankees' lineup to perform well tonight, they will need to stay patient and grind out at-bats.
In the pure definition of a groundball pitcher, Dallas Keuchel's name would pop up. With a sinker, cutter, and slider, Keuchel has a league leading groundball percentage of 61%.
The key to his dominance on the mound has been his ability to establish a rhythm during his starts.
In other words, he needs time to throw his pitches in combinations to be effective because he does not have the prototypical 95 mile per hour fastball.
For instance, his sinker and cutter work at similar speeds, but most evidently have different kinds of breaks as shown in Figure 1.
Most similarly, his slider and changeup work at predominantly the same speeds, but have different breaks and different spins as shown in Figure 2.
By having highly complementary pitches, he is able to generate a lot of swings/misses (10.3%) and, in general, keep batters guessing.
Figure 1: (Cutter has more negative horizontal break. While, Sinker has more horizontal break)
Figure 2: (Slider has more negative horizontal and vertical break than Changeup)
In his last start against the Yankees, Dallas Keuchel pitched 7 innings of no-run ball with 9 strikeouts and 0 walks.
He was able to generate swings/misses into strikeouts by keeping his sinker low and throwing his slider low/outside the strike zone to lefties (Figure 3).
In other words, in typical groundball pitcher fashion, the keys to his success tonight will be the establishment of those two pitches.
For the Yankees' lineup, the key will be to stay patient and wait for the opportunities when/if Keuchel makes a mistake pitch (Figure 4).
With Keuchel starting on three days rest, it is not a 100% guarantee that the Dallas Keuchel, we all know, will show up tonight.
Figure 3: (Start against the Yankees on 8/25)
Figure 4: (Start against the Yankees on 8/25)
Against most teams, the Yankees would have a formidable lineup to not have to worry about run support with a wOBA of .322 (top five in MLB).
However, as mentioned in previous AriBall articles, matchups are so important in postseason play.
The Yankees will have a lot of lefties in their lineup (Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Brian McCann, Greg Bird, etc.), which plays into the Houston Astros’ favor.
However, with Dallas Keuchel coming into this game on short rest, he will have his own question marks to answer whether he can replicate his previous success against the Yankees.
Although few and far in between, Keuchel will make the occasional mistake of leaving his sinker/slider over the heart of the plate.
Thus, the success of the Yankees’ lineup tonight could come down to the Yanks being able to capitalize on these mistakes to work deep counts and generate runs.
References:
1. "Baseball Reference." Baseball-Reference.com. Baseball Reference, n.d. Web. 14 Apr. 2015.
2. "Baseball Statistics and Analysis | FanGraphs Baseball." Baseball Statistics and Analysis | FanGraphs Baseball. N.p., n.d. Web. 24 Apr. 2015.
NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 10/06/15
By Sanjay Pothula
AriBall.com
