There are many reasons to be excited for the upcoming NLCS series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the St. Louis Cardinals.
During the 2013, the Dodgers performed better against the Cardinals during the season and own a 4-3 series lead. The Cardinals
(97-65), however, boast home field advantage over the Dodgers (92-70) and will begin the series in front of a home crowd at
Busch Stadium tonight. Both teams are ranked in the top five by ESPN Power Rankings and feature some of the most elusive
names in baseball: Adrian Gonzalez, Yadier Molina, Hanley Ramirez, Matt Carpenter and Yasiel Puig.
With two of the top ten National League leaders in WARP (Molina, Carpenter) in the Cardinals starting lineup, the Cardinals
also boast the top offense in the NL with 4.8 runs per game.
If any team in baseball were to have the ability to shut down the Cardinals offense, however, it would be the Dodgers. With
a collective 3.25 team ERA, the Dodgers earned the second best regular season mark in the NL. The only team with a better
overall ERA: the Atlanta Braves, whom the Dodgers were just able to defeat in four games.
Zack Greinke: Making Sure Batters Swing And Miss on His Cutter
In an effort to neutralize the Cardinals streaky offense, the Dodgers will throw RHP Zack Greinke.
In his 2013 season, Greinke (15-4, 2.63 ERA) showcased the best Win-Loss % in the MLB. He also displayed well above average
dominance with 3.21 K/BB this season. While he liked to mix in his 85-89 mph cutter often (16% of pitches) and it caused 32%
of swings to miss (MLB average: 17%) in 2013, it was his least “effective” pitch and opposing batters hit .376 against vs.
his cut fastball when in play.
His most effective pitch location is outside of the zone and away vs. righties (or inside vs. lefties) and batters are hitting
just 6-33 (.183) on balls in play. It’s also one of his favorite locations, with pitches landing there on 12% of attempts.
Greinke recorded 36 outs vs. only 6 hits in that location in 2013.
Yadier Molina & Matt Holliday: Ability, Inability to Hit Cutting Fastball
One player that Greinke will have to worry about in Game 1 is Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina.
He recorded a .333 BABIP (10-for-30) on pitches away and out of the zone in 2013. He was also most effective vs. the cutter
this season with hits on 21% of swings, compared to this least effective pitch (curveball: 10% of swings) in 2013.
Perhaps the best way to defeat Molina is to attack early with strikes, which pitchers often do. While pitchers threw fewer
first-pitch fastballs to Molina (43%) than they do to most batters, he has swung at the first pitch on 40% (MLB average: 28%)
of pitches.
Matt Holliday, however, has been inept against the cutting fastball this season with hits on only 9% of swings. He is also
hitting 6-for-34 on pitches outside the zone and on the right (.176 batting average) this season, even though it is one of
the most popular locations for pitchers to throw him.
Greinke, indeed, should likely have little trouble vs. Holliday in Game 1 at Busch Stadium.
Joseph Kelly: Dominance Outside and Above the Zone
For the Cardinals, RHP Joseph Kelly (10-5, 2.69 ERA) will take the mound and face Zack Greinke.
While Kelly often relies on his fastball for the majority of his success, his next most dominant pitch is his changeup.
He has thrown the 84-86 mph pitch on 16% of attempts this season, and batters are hitting just .210 when in play. His
changeup has a large tailing action and has helped him remain dominant this season.
Another key to his dominance has been his success on pitches outside the zone. Batters are hitting 14-for-104 (.134) this
season and have yet to record a hit on pitches either above the zone or far inside.
One fun fact to consider: Kelly has always thrown a fastball on 3-0 pitches this season, to both left handed hitters and
right handed hitters alike.
Adrian Gonzalez & Yasiel Puig: Why Dodgers May Struggle
Perhaps one player who may struggle against Kelly is Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. While opponents are 0-for-4
on pitches above the zone and away half against Kelly this season, Gonzalez is 1-for-36 (.028) and has struggled mightily
on pitches above the zone.
Gonzalez has also recorded 35 outs on pitches above the zone this season, but only 1 hit.
His lack of production, however, has not hindered his aggressive nature at the plate this season. He has attacked and
swung on pitches up/right in the zone on 83% of pitches (MLB average: 63%) in 2013.
Fortunately, he has been very impressive with patience and has only struck out swing in 1.2% of plate appearances.
Outfielder Yasiel Puig has also yet to record a hit above the zone this season (0-for-18), yet has recorded 18 outs in the
process. All but one of those recorded outs was on a fastball.
Carl Crawford: Why He Will Be Difference Maker
One of the only productive Dodgers “above the zone” is outfielder Carl Crawford.
He has a recorded .333 BABIP on pitches above the zone, and also has a .400 batting average on balls pitched inside and
beyond the zone. He has remained strong in an area where many other Dodgers have not been all season long. His BABIP on
all pitches beyond the zone is a strikingly impressive .384 (25-for-65), neutralizing an area in which Kelly is most effective.
Also in Crawford’s favor: he has been most effective vs. changeups this season (Kelly’s No. 2 pitch) and has hits on
20% of swings this season.
When the Dodgers and Cardinals face off in Game 1, there should be plenty of excitement and compelling baseball to follow.
NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 10/10/13
By Bryan Kalbrosky
AriBall.com
