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When Oakland A’s General Manager, Billy Beane, was asked about Moneyball in the playoffs, he responded with “my $#!+ doesn’t work in the playoffs”. The playoffs are a very small sample size of data. It’s a do or die series that alters the philosophy of constructing a team based on On-Base Percentage. Much in the same way, defensive positioning can expose a team and undermine a season of effort, success, and investment.

For decades, Ted Williams was was the only man in baseball that was defended with an extreme shift. It thus became famous as the “Williams Shift”. In today’s game, it could as easily be known as “The Lucas Duda Shift”. Nearly all teams employ large quantities of data to their advantage and infielders migrate defensively; from hitter to hitter. The length of the season allows for thousands of ground balls to be put into play and tracked with data plot points. Shifting can be Right Handed vs Left Handed pitchers, sinkers/4 seam fastballs, breaking balls/change ups, offensive situations, etc. Infield shifting charts can be broken down anyway imaginable. Over the long season, shifting plays out to the defenses advantage and, ultimately, results in a 1-2 game improvement.

Tampa Bay started shifting regularly in 2009, with the Pittsburgh Pirates following shortly thereafter. During my tenure with the Pirates front office, I used this data for defensive shifts in preparation for each series. Nearly every lineup had three or more shifting possibilities and it was not unusual to score a groundball to shallow right field as 5-4.

In my opinion, as playoff time rolls around, drastic shifting becomes a mistake. Playoffs consist of 1, 5, or 7 games. Playing to the probability, based on a 162 game season of data, and applying it to a small playoff sample size of events; becomes a disadvantage. Players should shift slightly in either direction but major shifts make a defense vulnerable. This season, the shift has burned many teams for various reasons.

The first reason is the player’s responsibilities. Teams may utilize the shift throughout the year but it’s unnatural. The intensity and atmosphere in a playoff setting are unlike the regular season. Where every play is crucial, a base runner will look to take advantage in every situation. The New York Mets Daniel Murphy took advantage of a youthful Corey Seager when he stole third base because the shortstop was stationed behind second base and no one took responsibility for third base. The third baseman was stationed on the right side of the infield. Because Lucas Duda was hitting behind Murphy, the defense was in a shift and hadn’t returned to their original position. Murphy was aware of this and raced Greinke to the bag. He scored the tying run shortly after to help the Mets beat the Dodgers by a run.

Photo from mlb.com

The second reason is the emotion. When Oliver Perez was brought in to turn switch hitting Kendrys Morales around to right handed, it was to be an advantage. The result was a weakly hit ball to second base that surely would’ve been a double play. Houston may have finished that inning ahead 6-4 instead of trailing and losing 9-6. A similar play against the Astros found Ben Zobrist at the plate who hit a ball directly to an empty shortstop position.

As a former professional pitcher, I can tell you when a ball is hit, you know if it is an out or not. When a pitcher turns around and sees that no one is standing at the normal position, it’s beyond frustrating. The feeling is not equal when the shift is beneficial. With the magnification of the playoff emotions, the former has a much greater impact on the pitcher and a team’s psyche.

The final reason extreme shifting is a problem in the playoffs is the hitter’s ability to adjust. The enhanced importance of every play, during the playoffs, changes the way in which the game is played. Starting pitchers aren’t normally brought back to pitch on three days’ rest. Benches and bullpens aren’t used to depletion throughout the regular season. If the game’s importance level is raised, why wouldn’t the hitter take advantage of an opportunity? After all, this isn’t game 47 of the regular season. It’s the playoffs! They’ve dreamed of playing in this scenario their entire lives!

Photos from Tommy Ljungblad/Kansas City Star and USA Today

Hitters like Anthony Rizzo, Prince Fielder, and Eric Hosmer face major shifting and have all shown the tendency to change their approach. While the opposition may indicate that they welcome it, a run is not just a run in the playoffs. Scoring never means as much as it does in October.

There are times in the game that dictate for the shift, just as there are times to steal a base rather than sacrifice bunt. These should be considered on an at bat by at bat case and not simply because the hitter has a pull tendency. When the Tampa Bay Rays first started shifting regularly; fans, players, and even coaches didn’t buy in. Over time, it proved to be the right move during a long season. In October, a “season” can last one game. The information needs to be used to a team’s advantage in making a decision, not followed blindly.

References:
1. "Baseball Reference." Baseball-Reference.com. Baseball Reference, n.d. Web. 14 Apr. 2015.
NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 10/17/15

By Simon Ferrer
AriBall.com

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