The Fall Classic is right around the corner with fans getting ready to fill the seats in Fenway Park.
The Red Sox will face Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright in Game 1 who is 2-1 with 4 earned runs during the post season.
Great pitching going up against great hitting means only one thing, great baseball.
Jacoby Ellsbury batted .298 during the 2013 season and hit below his average off of cutters. Wainwright threw his cutter
29% of pitches during the regular season and threw it 34% of his pitches during his last start in the NLCS. Ellsbury was
10 for 35 (.285) when hitting a cutter during the regular season, but most of these hits were over the middle of the plate or
outside. Wainwright likes to keep his cutter inside to lefties, so Ellsbury will have to be patient for the one cutter that
gets away.
Shane Victorino took the first pitch 84% of the time during the season (MLB Avg. 72%). He had 6 hits come from the first pitch,
five from fastballs and one from a sinker. Wainwright threw a first pitch strike 64% of the time in 2013 with 31% being a
sinker and 29% being a cutter. If Victorino bats right-handed and Wainwrights keeps the first pitch inside, it should be a
freebie strike to get ahead in the count.
Dustin Pedroia is a durable cleanup hitter with 31 infield hits on the season. Like Victorino, Pedroia takes the first
pitch 85% of the time, but sits much lower than Victorino for a small strike zone. 77 of his 193 hits (40%) were to left
field during the season, which is important because of a slow Matt Holliday playing in the outfield.
David Ortiz is known to pull the ball, but it may be surprising to some that 30% of his outfield hits were to left
field, most of them coming at home with the Green Monster only 310 feet away from home plate. Wainwright has given up 7
home runs to right field this year and a handful of deep base hits and fly outs to right. Less than half of Ortiz’s outfield
hits at Fenway are to right field, but he may be trying extra hard with a 36 year old Carlos Beltran covering a lot of ground.
Mike Napoli likes to make contact with curveballs. In 2013, he batted .473 when hitting a curveball into play (MLB Avg. 321).
Wainwright threw a curveball 28% of pitches during the season and 36% of pitches in his last start to the Dodgers during the
NLCS. With that being said, 22 of Napoli’s 32 outs off curveballs during the season were pitches low in the zone, an area
that Wainwright specializes in.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia is hitting groundballs more often than last year (37% vs. 27%) and flyballs
less often than last year (32% vs. 43%). In addition, when he hits a groundball it is an out more often than
last year (45% vs. 34%). This fact favors the Cardinals, especially with a weak outfield. The Cardinals outfield misplayed
more than a few balls during the NLCS and is a weakness the Red Sox must be able to exploit. In 26 playoff at-bats,
Saltalamacchia has hit the ball deep into the outfield only 3 times.
Jonny Gomes isn’t too hot during this current post season. In the ALCS versus Detroit, Gomes was only 3 for 16 (.188)
with 7 strikeouts. Throughout the regular season, Gomes struck out 89 times in 366 plate appearances (24.3%) (MLB Avg. 17%).
On the other hand, Wainwright was 6th in the majors for strikeouts with 219.
Stephen Drew is 3 for 25 (.086) this post season with only 1 hit in his last eight games. Additionally, Drew has struck
out 12 times and has grounded out 8 times during the playoffs. The left side of the infield should shift over a
substantial amount when Drew is up because he rarely hits a groundball to the left side.
Xander Bogaerts has gotten the last two starts over Will Middlebrooks at third base. He is 3 for 6 in the post season
with three doubles, all in the last three games. Bogaerts had only 44 at-bats during the regular season, but has come
along well for the Red Sox at the right time. He has spread out his 11 hits to all parts of the field and had 1 home
run during the season.
NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 10/21/13
By Danny Malter
AriBall.com
