How do you win a baseball game? It doesn’t matter if the win is a 1-0 pitcher's duel or a 15-14 slugfest.
They all look the same in the win column, and the bottom line is to score more runs than the other guys.
A front office’s job is to design a winning organization based on numerous dynamics such as evaluating the farm system, drafting new players, developing those players, signing free agents, implementing statistical analysis, trading, roster strategy, hiring training and nutritional staffs, hiring coaching staffs, and etc.
Each of these categories has fixed and variable costs, but it’s up to the owners to determine the size of the budget.
If the financial playing field is un-level, how is a front office’s performance evaluated? For example, this past season, the Los Angeles Dodgers had a payroll of ~$314 million, and the Cleveland Indians had a payroll of ~$77 million.
The Dodgers made the playoffs and Cleveland didn’t. The Dodgers won their division. Cleveland didn’t even make the second Wild Card spot.
The Dodgers were 22 games over .500 while the Indians only had a winning season by one game.
When factoring in budgets, however, it can be argued that Cleveland’s Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff had a better year than Los Angeles’ Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi.
Here is the methodology. Offensively, it can be boiled down to runs scored per game (R/G).
Whether the team is built with all power hitters, base stealers, or fundamentally sound players, they need to score runs.
Defensively, factoring in pitching and defense, runs against per game (RA/G) is the deciding statistic.
The subtraction of these two figures is run difference. How many runs did the team score, and how many runs did they give up.
If they scored five runs and allowed three runs, their run difference is two. Simplistic? Yes, but effectively defining.
If evaluating a front office was based on run difference only, teams like the Dodgers and Yankees would be higher on our list with Cleveland descending.
With general managers lacking control of a salary cap, owners determine the probability of an October appearance based on how much they are willing to spend.
Notice the Dodger and Yankees in regards to the two graphs, above and below. The influx of dollars allowed them to have a larger margin for error by procuring the high profile free agent players.
Aside from the Yankees, the next highest payroll to the Dodgers is the San Francisco Giants. The Giants fall $128 million short of L.A.
Even with the massive budget, the Dodgers only achieved the 7th best run differential.
The run differential, for each team, is divided by that team’s salary.
The result is in an extremely minute figure.
We multiply that figure by one billion so that we arrive at a more realistic and manageable figure. Note the graph below.
The Dollar Run Average ($RA) is a way to evaluate which front office allocated their budget the most efficiently. The 2015 league average was a -0.26 $RA.
The Toronto Blue Jays rated the highest with a 9.83 $RA and the Atlanta Braves were the lowest at -10.76 $RA.
The teams sitting at the lower end of the $RA spectrum; Atlanta, Seattle, Anaheim, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee were all expected to compete this year.
This was certainly not a rebuilding or honeymoon period. This is reflected in the firing or replacing of all six general managerial positions.
Seven of the top ten teams made the playoffs while the Dodgers and Yankees had to buy their way into the playoffs.
Although the Texas Rangers were exciting with a new manager and an under rated team, they still spent ~$152 million in payroll to get there.
Toronto’s Alex Anthopoulos, Houston’s Jeff Luhnow, and Pittsburgh’s Neal Huntington were leading the pack with a 6.00+ $RA.
Cleveland, although not punching a postseason ticket, performed well enough to be in the top ten despite having a miniscule payroll of only ~$77 million.
If the post season were made up of front offices instead of baseball teams, Cleveland, San Francisco, and Washington would replace the Yankees, Rangers, and Dodgers.
Unfortunately, it doesn’t work that way and the amount of money spent is still a major factor in creating a team for the playoffs.
Historically, a new regime may inherit a dysfunctional organization where a complete rebuild is necessary to get back to a competitive level.
This is why Neal Huntington of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Dayton Moore of the Kansas City Royals were given multiple years to turn around perennial losers.
If this were to evaluate Huntington’s first four seasons, he averaged -21.64 $RA. Moore averaged -10.13 $RA over his first four seasons.
Fortunately, these two GM’s had understanding and willing owners which allowed them to rebuild patiently and methodically.
If a team isn’t willing to invest a great deal of money immediately, they need to be patient in implementing a front office that has the vision and the time to turn it around.
Huntington’s last three seasons have blossomed into an average of a 4.96 $RA while Moore’s averaged 3.05 $RA.
The consensus throughout Major League Baseball is that these two organizations have built from the ground up and are built to last.
Conversely, does this mean that the Arizona Diamondbacks new front office led by Dave Stewart is on the rise from a first year positive $RA? Not necessarily.
In the same way a GM can inherit a bad situation, they can also inherit an average or good one too.
When evaluating new front offices, there needs to be a grace period before deciding their failure or success.
It isn’t Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi’s fault that they have a budget of $300 million to construct a roster.
They have earned their stripes with the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics, respectively, to be in the position to have resources of this magnitude.
Friedman’s tenure in Tampa produced four seasons with a 10.00+ $RA. While Zaidi’s time in Oakland netted a 10.00+ $RA over the last three seasons under the tutelage of Billy Beane.
The definition of a General Manager has changed significantly from its inception. An evaluation of a organization’s office success needs to be considered as the entire front office.
Beane, Friedman, Antonetti, and Theo Epstein are among some of those who still are considered to make the most critical decisions although none have the traditional title of General Manager.
The $RA is an analytic tool to help gauge how effectively a front office allocates their budget and employs their farm system.
References:
1. "Baseball Reference." Baseball-Reference.com. Baseball Reference, n.d. Web. 14 Apr. 2015.
2. "Cot's Baseball Contracts." Cots Baseball Contracts. Baseball Prospectus, n.d. Web. 26 Oct. 2015. .
NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 10/26/15
By Simon Ferrer
AriBall.com
