AriBall is the collaborative effort of over half of all MLB teams with Ari Kaplan (Caltech Alumni of the
Decade and MLB consultant for over two decades) and Fred Claire (World Series-winning general
manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers and member of the club’s front office for 30 years.)

Media is welcome to use this information. We would ask for a reference and, if possible, a link to AriBall.com.

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By Tom McFeeley, AriBall.com

Johnny Cueto is one of the most enigmatic pitchers in baseball. And he’s had one of the most enigmatic seasons in baseball this year.

In 2014, he posted a stellar 20-9 record; he struck out about a batter per inning over 243.2 innings; his control was good at 2.4 BB/9. His 2.25 ERA and .238 BABIP certainly popped eyes and put him squarely in the “ace” category.

Then came 2015.

Most of the stats came back to earth. A .281 BABIP; a 73 percent strand rate, down from 83 percent; his strikeouts were down, but so were his walks. His groundball rate fell too. More contact, more line drives, more fly balls – all tolled he was 11-13 with a 3.44 ERA. His first half was much better, with a 2.73 ERA compared to the 2nd half’s 4.34 ERA.

In three of the first four months of the season, batters posted a sub .200 average, something that never happened in the second half. But in the postseason, he has dialed up his velocity, up from his usual 91 or 92 mph, touching 96 on occasion and getting stronger throughout the game.

Let’s look at how batters fared against his pitches over the full season:

Pitch	Avg	FB 93+ mph	FB 90-
FB	.243	.201	.297
Changeup	.211
Slider	.322

Further, AriBall data shows that batters missed his fastball and slider more than usual; they did hit his slider at an above average rate. The threw his fastball about half the time and a cutter about a quarter of the time. The cutter came in about four mph slower than the fastball, so batters might have feasted on it, based on that .297 average on fastballs 90 mph and under.

In a column yesterday, we looked at the minor differences between the Mets big three aces. We saw that Jacob deGrom, who was the most effective of the Mets arms, also threw the slowest of the three (but was 12th among MLB starters in velocity). Looking at Cueto’s pitches, broken out by month, yields an interesting finding:

Month	FB Spin (2020 rpm is avg.)	Changeup spin (1546 is avg.)	ERA (overall)	Batting Average against (overall)
April	2209	1208	1.95	.168
May	2269	1342	4.45	.264
June	1961	1079	2.87	.178
July	1887	1084	2.03	.192
August	2239	1340	3.86	.275
Sept./Oct.	2409	1590	5.58	.331

Notice the spins, and results, from June and July. It seems that Cueto let off the gas just a bit with terrific results. April was clearly his best month, but it seems he was trying to correct something out of a difficult month of May.

Remember that spin helps the break of a pitch, but a slower spin will impact the natural drop (gravity) of a pitch, which is not included in its break. So, much like deGrom, Cueto might be having more success with a “heavier drop” which might be resulting from in weaker contact. But curiously, he ramped up that spin late in the year, perhaps trying to fool a new group of American League hitters.

But his pattern throughout the season has been intriguing as well.

His velocity the second time through the order, on average, is about 1 mph higher than the first run-through. He gains another mph on the third trip through the order.

So what will we look for tonight?

The Mets should look to be aggressive in the early innings. Clearly they will want to quiet the crowd and get an early lead anyway. They may struggle the second time around the order but, as they’ve shown this offseason, the third time through the order is difficult for an opposing pitcher.

Both Cueto and deGrom should make an effort to tamp their adrenaline and not try to do too much. With a gentler touch, and perhaps a slower spin, they are likely to get better results. We will know soon enough.

By Tom McFeeley, AriBall.com

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