Madison Bumgarner: A Breakdown of his
World Series Dominance

By Ari Kaplan, AriBall.com Sportswriter

AriBall is the collaborative effort of over half of all MLB teams with Ari Kaplan (Caltech Alumni of the
Decade and MLB consultant for over two decades) and Fred Claire (World Series-winning general
manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers and member of the club’s front office for 30 years.)

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Yesterday we witnessed the conclusion of one of the best World Series pitching performances in history. Madison Bumgarner’s 2014 performances in Games 1, 5, and 7 were compared to Christy Mathewson, Sandy Koufax and Bob Gibson. AriBall took a look and analyzed his historic feat.

Each of the three games were unique – Bumgarner changed his pitch selection and location each against righties and lefties. Each game seemingly built upon the previous, with adjustments coming from noticing the changes in subtleties of the strengths and weaknesses and habits of the Royals’ lineup.

Bumgarner located his fastballs, curves and changeups higher each game, while maintaining his slider across the belt in all three games. He also altered his movement and spin each game: fastballs and changeups lowered each game, curveballs increased drop, and sliders went down in Game 5 and up in Game 7. Below are the spin amounts (in rpm) for each game in the season, with the World Series highlighted on the right:

What stayed constant were his release points, which were similarly placed for all three games and for all pitch types. While his pitches lack overpowering speed, this release point deception combined with his movement and location kept batters guessing pitch types longer – helping Bumgarner generate so many groundball and flyball outs. Below are the release points for all three games:

   

Game 1

Against righties, Bumgarner threw a significant number of fastballs mostly to the top half of the strikezone and above. This was very effective, resulting in 7 pitches hit into outs, and just one hit from Perez with 2 outs in the 7th. He also mixed in a handful of curves low, changeups away, and sliders across the belt, with one left near the heart of the plate that resulted in a hit from Billy Butler in the 2nd:

Against lefties, he was effective by pitching to the down/away corner and tempting batters into outs with his FB and slider down the heart of the plate. His lone hit yielded in the game was from Moustakas who took a full-count 92mph FB for a hit in the 3rd:

Game 5

Against righties, he pitched for contact, not to overpower them. As a result he generated 12 outs on balls in play – all within the strikezone and 4 near the heart of the zone. Two of his three hits were off of pitches beyond the zone to Perez (in the top of the 2nd off a 87mph slider) and Cain (top of the 1st off a 94mph FB).

Against lefties, he was extremely effective with his sliders generating outs on balls in play by leaving across the zone and relying on his deceptive movement to not overpower but finesse outs.

Generally threw his FB to the outer half or above the zone, although he left a few down the middle (which Gordon and Hosmer took for strikes). His lone hit allowed was by Hosmer with a 76 mph curve at the knees:

Game 7

This game he threw pitches inside the zone 13% less often than typical, and his curve was 1.2mph slower. He threw only 29% of his first pitches in the strike zone (5 of 17 total).

Against lefties, he kept his 91-93 fastball mostly on the outer half of the zone, and his 86-87 slider away, resulting in no hits:

Looking at how Bumgarner pitched just to Hosmer, he kept sliders away and FB up, getting one hit into an out in the 6th and one strikeout off a high FB in the top of the 9th:

Against righties, he effectively threw his 91-93mph FB up or away from righties, and kept his 86-87mph slider near the bottom of the zone while mixing in 7 curves and 1 changeup. His dominance resulted in his only hit (the white circle) off a 93mph FB to Omar Infante in the bottom of the 5th:

It is interesting to see how he pitched to Salvador Perez’s weaknesses. Perez, who was hurt when his knee was hit by a pitch in the 2nd inning, swung at a curveball at the ankles in the 7th inning. Bumgarner apparently remembered this when facing him again with 2 outs, bottom of the 9th inning of Game 7 of the World Series. It does not get more important than that. Bumgarner tempted Perez, who swung and missed at two FB that were way above the zone, and then got Perez to pop up to end the 2014 World Series off a 92.8mph fastball located at the top edge of the zone. Game over. Series over. Season over.

NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 10/30/14

By Ari Kaplan
AriBall.com