This past week, the Mets made a big splash in free agency by signing Michael Cuddyer to a 2 year, $21 million
dollar deal. The deal came as a surprise to many Mets’ and baseball fans because many expected Cuddyer to accept
the Rockies qualifying offer of 1 year, $15.3 million by the 5 PM deadline on Monday, November 10th (NJ.com).
Although Cuddyer is 36 years old, he still exhibits many qualities of an exceptional old-school ballplayer.
Based off video tape during his three years in Colorado, it is obvious that he has a nice compact swing,
surprising speed, and a good glove in the outfield. However, videotapes do not show how good Cuddyer has been
during his time in Colorado, when healthy. In the past three seasons, he has batted .307 with an On-Base
Percentage of .362, a Slugging Percentage of .525 and an OPS of .886. In this time frame, Cuddyer is ranked
fourteenth in OPS ahead of well-known players such as Buster Posey, Victor Martinez, and Hanley Ramirez.
In addition, he not only made the NL All-Star team in 2013, but he also won the NL batting title as well as
the Silver Slugger in the same year. Now, the question we must ask is, how has Michael Cuddyer been able to
post up career years during his mid-30s?
Source: FanGraphs
Based off Cuddyer's zone profile in 2014, he has shown to be an elite pull hitter with an exceptional ability to
drive pitches on the upper inner half of the plate for hits (Batting Averages of .429 and .354 respectively).
In addition, he has shown the ability to drive pitches the other way for hits as well (.379, .286, and .357
respectively).
Beyond this elite ability to create hits from pitches both sides of the strike zone, he has shown a selective,
but aggressive approach at the plate. His outside swing percentages of 34.2% in 2013 and 36.8% in 2014 suggests
that he swings at a lot of bad pitches. However, when one takes a look at his percentage swing chart from 2013
to 2014, many of his bad pitch swings are mostly inside. This means to some degree that Cuddyer is selective at
the plate and looks for pitches on the inner half of the plate to drive for hits. In terms of weaknesses, he has
shown some ineffectiveness with hitting pitches low in the zone as noted from his low Batting Average inside/low
(.226) and low Slugging Percentages down/away (.352 and .448). Although Cuddyer exhibits these weaknesses, he has
shown an elite ability to drive pitches up in the zone, predominantly on the inner portion of the plate.
One cause of concern for Cuddyer's arrival to the Mets are his inflated stats at Coors Field. In the past two
seasons, he has hit .400 and .350 with an OPS of 1.255 and .997 respectively. During any other season besides
2013 and 2014, he had only an OPS of above .990 once in a span of eleven years from 2002 to 2012. Another point
to take into account of Cuddyer's statistical inflation are his home run to fly ball rates. In those two years,
his home run to fly ball rates (22% in 2013 and 33.3% in 2014) at Coors Field were well above his career rate of
15.8% at home.
Source: FanGraphs
As highly recognized, Coors Field is known as the perfect hitter's park with hitting statistics that dominate
the rest of the ball parks in the league by a huge margin. Within a five year span from 2010 to 2014, the
Rockies have a WRAA of 625.4 at home, which means they have scored 625.4 runs above the league average.
The second closest team at home is the Boston Red Sox with a WRAA of 375. Well, why are statistics in Coors
Field so inflated?
In general, there are two forces acting upon a baseball after the ball is hit into play; gravitational force and
frictional force. While we all know gravity acts in the same manner in every baseball stadium, frictional force
and altitude is very unique from city to city. At Coors Field, the air is very thin because of its location in a
high altitude area in Colorado. Meaning there is less frictional force in the air to slow down the speed of the
ball off the bat, which explains why Rockies' players like Michael Cuddyer exhibit superhuman performance at home.
Source: imgflip
Although it is most obvious that Cuddyer's play will deteriorate by switching from Coors Field to Citi Field,
the Mets' signing of the "Cuddy Man" at 2 years $21 million signals a time of change for the Mets organization.
Many Mets' fans will be frustrated that the team will have to give up their 15th pick in the 2015 draft because
the Rockies had offered Cuddyer the qualifying offer. However, an AAV of $10.5 for two years should be considered
a basement bargain for a quality outfielder. Around this same time last year, the Mets signed Chris Young at 1
year $7.5 million to play the left field position. He ended up being becoming a disaster in the lineup with a
batting average of .207, an On-Base Percentage of .291, and a Slugging Percentage of .361 during the first half
of the season. By August 8th, the Mets designated Young for assignment and used a turnstile of outfielders in
left field, which included Matt Den Dekker, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Eric Young Jr.
Source: FanGraphs
This is where the signing of Cuddyer makes a lot of sense for the Mets because he could potentially provide
a lot of stability to the left field spot for the next two years as the Mets try to instill star prospects
such as Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo into the outfield in the future. As the Mets are a super analytical
organization, the front office undoubtedly took into account Cuddyer's inflated stats at home in Coors Field
when signing him to a multi-year deal. However, to make that next step into the playoffs after a 7 year hiatus,
the Mets are hoping he can produce at an above average rate at Citi Field, stay healthy, and provide leadership
to a young Mets' lineup which includes budding stars such as Jacob DeGrom, Travis D'Arnaud, Juan Lagares, and many more.
NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 11/15/14
By Sanjay Pothula
AriBall.com
