At this time of year, the powers that be in the world of Major League Baseball are trying to position their clubs for future success, but sometimes they fail to learn from lessons of the past.
So, I would like to take an inside look at Jordan Zimmermann’s traditional statistics, ‘new age” metrics, “naked eye” scouting and formulate a value in this free agent market as well as offer some speculation regarding where the big Wisconsin native will land.
The big righty with the “bulldog” attitude historically has been durable and goes deep into games where he has logged on average 194 innings per year since 2011 and 209 innings most recently in 2015.
Heading into his age 30 season, Zimmermann rejected the Nationals $15.8 million qualifying offer and is testing the free agent waters.
With that said, Zimmermann’s body of work over the last 5 seasons is as follows: 66-43, 155 starts, 3.14 ERA, 784 K’s, and 3.29 FIP.
For the record, this Nationals pitcher is not afraid to attack hitters, but in-depth analysis might suggest that he has lost velocity on his four seam fastball as well as some vertical drop.
Was the almost 23% strikeout rate, over eight K’s per 9, and average fastball speed of almost 94 mph in 2014 an aberration or is there something more telling?
If you’re a proponent of balls hit on the ground versus in the air, then you might be interested in knowing that Zimmermann’s ground ball percentage rate of almost 48% in 2013 has not been replicated, but instead he has given up on average approximately 35% more home runs per 9 innings in 2015 than the previous four year period.
Additionally, Zimmermann’s average fastball speed dropped approximately one mph. Could it be a injury, mechanical issue regarding release point, or quite possibly a paradigm shift concerning pitching philosophy? Interestingly enough, this National’s starter has favored his fastball less in 2015 (62.5%) as opposed to (70.3%) in 2014, an almost 8% drop.
Conversely, his breakout all-star season in 2013, Zimmermann threw his change-up almost 5.0% of the time versus 0.2% in 2015.
Traditionally speaking, when pitches are up in the zone and velocity is lacking, baseballs get hit a long way.
When you fail to change speeds as well as the “eye level” of the hitter, good “swing and miss stuff” is wasted.
So, without getting too technical, it appears as if Zimmermann lost a little confidence, velocity and downward movement on his four-seamer and fell “in love” with his slider or as he calls it, his “baby cutter”.
With an average seasonal WAR of 3.74 since 2011, what is Zimmermann’s value in this free agent market?
Well, if you’re looking to make comparisons with some of the sought after talent as well as some most recent deals, here are some numbers for review:
(Jon Lester: six year, $145 million contract starting in 2015)
(Marco Estrada: two years, $26 million contract starting in 2016)
(WAR from BASEBALL-REFERENCE)
Depending on which way you look at it, Jordan Zimmermann can be a bargain when your compare his performance over the last five years to Jon Lester’s.
Speculation on the open market suggests a potential 6 year deal at around $125 million.
Even though there are over 20 free agent pitchers in the 29-32 year old range, only Zack Greinke and David Price are considered more coveted.
In my estimation, Jordan Zimmermann could potentially be a great fit with a club seeking a top level arm.
For example, the Baltimore Orioles. With the potential loss of Wei Yin Chen to free agency and Director of Pitching Development, Rick Peterson who is a guru of biomechanical research/psychological principles, it seems like a winner. Baltimore Orioles executive vice president of baseball operations, Dan Duquette, stated this past Sunday, “We would like to sign a top-of-the-rotation starter”. The reliable righty doesn’t necessarily rate as a power arm, but pitches to contact, has a low walk ratio, and has previously shown the ability to rear back and over power hitters.
Provided Zimmermann is injury free and can be more consistent with his fastball down with the right mix of off-speed, he will regain his 2013 all-star form.
Just like in the movie, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”, “You can change or stay the same, there are no rules to this thing.
We can make the best or worst of it. I hope you make the best of it.”
NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 11/19/15
By Vincent Scotto
AriBall.com
