On November 1st, 2014, Canadians were asking themselves two important questions: where can I buy the new Taylor Swift album, and who is Marco Estrada?
The answer to the latter of course was that Marco Estrada was the 2014 MLB leader in home runs allowed.
After being traded to a hitter’s park for slugger Adam Lind, this stat certainly left some people scratching their heads.
Fast forward to November 13, 2015; Estrada signs a 2 year/$26 million contract with the Jays after posting a career best 13 wins with a 3.13 ERA.
Aside from the stats, the right-hander solidified himself as fan favorite, clutch performer and, clearly an off-season priority for Blue Jays management.
As the 2015 season kicked off, Estrada had a slow start, with a 5.02 ERA coming out of the pen through the month of May.
This trickled into June, where Estrada still struggled to find his ace-like consistency.
Everything changed on June 19th: Paula Abdul’s 53rd birthday – but more importantly, his first game with Dioner Navarro behind the plate.
Although Russell Martin proved to be one of the Jays’ best assets this season, the Navarro effect was immediately noticeable on Estrada’s performance.
Along with the improved chemistry and other intangibles, Navarro’s fantastic game management skills immediately adjusted Estrada’s game.
With the strength of a controlled fastball and an improving Jays’ defense, they switched the focus in the pitch repertoire, which proved successful.
Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images
By no means a power pitcher, with his fastball rarely breaking past the low 90s, Estrada and Navarro were all about control.
Moving higher in the strike zone, and away from the weaker curve and change up pitches, the pair saw an increase in fly balls and pop outs.
In a hitter’s park like the Rogers Centre, this could have been risky business, but Navarro always had the confidence in the pitch to maintain control.
Dioner was prescriptive in calling pitch location, which moved higher in the zone after June 19th.
Although marginally more balls were left over the middle, the subtle transition to higher in the zone was the key to forcing batters to poorer contact and a lower HR percentage.
Marco Estrada – Percentage of Pitches
Estrada – % Pitches before June 19th
Estrada - % Pitches after June 19th
After the All-Star break, Estrada’s numbers were becoming comparable with some of the best in the business.
A 7-3 record, 2.78 ERA and 0.91 WHIP after the break are three big reasons Estrada got the contract he wanted.
From Navarro’s perspective, he became a lock as the starter in each game Estrada was on the mound.
Even in desperate playoff times, the Estrada-Navarro pairing came as a comforting sight for fans, knowing they could expect a positive result.
Dioner was no doubt an asset to the organization, despite the acquisition of veteran Russell Martin in the off-season.
With less than half the chances at bat that Martin had, Navarro’s offensive production was serviceable with a .246 batting average.
This offensive production, combined with a stellar defensive skill set would make the 31 year old a factor on any big league team.
Which leads us to the elephant in the room for Toronto – Navarro is a free agent. Much like his friend Marco, the end of the playoff run meant the end of a contract.
Unlike Estrada, Navarro’s fate is yet to be decided, which in turn could have an impact on Estrada.
Everyone, including the Blue Jays management, has clearly seen the chemistry and resulting production from the pair working together, but at what cost?
After a changing of the guard in the front office with Anthopoulos out and Shapiro in, the future direction of the team is yet to be determined.
Based on the signing, it’s clear that Estrada was a priority, but Navarro’s use is to be determined.
There is no doubt that Russell Martin has the ability to call games for Estrada, but the idea of a secondary catcher like Navarro could prove successful for the team, as it did this year.
With Estrada signed, Price rumored on his way out, and the offense currently intact, it should be an interesting off-season for the AL East champs.
NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 11/22/15
By Zubin Forbes
AriBall.com
