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In a surprising turn of events, the Atlanta Braves traded Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden to the St. Louis Cardinals for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. This trade most likely came about because, as widely reported, the Braves and Heyward could not agree on a multi-year extension. In the case of the St. Louis Cardinals, they took the risk of trading an important starting rotation asset in Shelby Miller, who has four years of control at a manageable salary, for a position of need in the outfield in Jason Heyward, who will possibly hit the free agency market next year. With inflation most likely to occur as a result of Giancarlo Stanton’s 13-year $325 million deal, Heyward should look to possibly attain a ten-year contract at upwards of $250 million in next year’s free agency market. This is where the Cardinals are either hoping for a discount from Heyward on his next contract or hoping they can make a last ditch effort to capturing another World Series’ title with aging players such as Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina, and Matt Holliday still productive.

At 6 foot 5 inches and 245 pounds, Jason Heyward has not exactly produced at the All-Star level expected of him based on his scouting reports during his minor league years. From an MLB.com scouting report in 2009, he was compared to Dave Winfield and Dave Parker because of his “bat speed, power and knowledge of the strike zone.” In the past three seasons, he has had 78 doubles, 52 home runs, and 178 RBIs with an OPS of .778 with the majority of this production occurring in 2012. This past year in 2014, he turned in a slash line of .271/.351/.384 with 11 home runs and 58 RBIs in 149 games. This huge drop in production is rather surprising because it shows that Heyward’s power numbers are down from his big year in 2012, in which he hit 27 home runs and had 82 RBIs with an OPS of .814. In general, he has proven to be a top player in the league with a top 25 WAR of 5.1 this past season. However, he has most evidently underachieved because his split statistics against lefties have proven to be abysmal in comparison to his splits against righties. Although he has overall been seen as an underachiever within MLB circles, Jason Heyward should figure to break out and become a top outfielder for the 2015 season based on his past success and the future performance of other top outfielders in the MLB.

Source: Fangraphs

Jason Heyward’s performance against lefties has severely stunted his development as a star-hitting outfielder in the league. This past year, he batted .169 with a .252 OBP, .225 SLG, and a .34 BB to SO ratio against lefty pitching. This is a far cry from his performance against right handed pitching, against whom he batted .304 with a .384 OBP, .436 SLG, and a .87 BB to SO ratio. There are two main weaknesses that Heyward faces against left-handed pitching; off-speed pitches and pitches low/away. In terms of off-speed pitches, he has shown two negative traits; inability to make contact and soft contact numbers when contact is made. This most likely comes from the fact that most lefties look to pitch Heyward low/away and out of the zone, which points to Jason Heyward being a free swinger at the plate.

Source: imgflip

His weaknesses against lefties is also exemplified by his line drive numbers. Against righties, he has shown to be a strong line drive hitter with good power numbers as evidenced from 5% or greater line drive rates and some semblance of home run rates to fastball and other pitches However, against lefties, he struggled mightily with poor contact rates (high whiff rates above 15% and low line drive rates below 4%).

Source: Baseball Savant
Source: Brooks Baseball

Source: Baseball Savant
Source: Brooks Baseball

In general, it is really easy to conclude Jason Heyward has underachieved in comparison to the enormous potential put on him at a young age from the heaps of praise as the next “Dave Winfield.” However, as the aging graph shows, by setting PA constant at 600, Jason Heyward has performed at a level that is comparable to the other top outfielders, who just received extensions or new contracts. For example, Heyward has performed at a level comparable to Carl Crawford, who received a 7-year $142 million dollar contract for his age 30 season in 2010. This is where the brain can play tricks on one because, from the plain eye test, it looks like Heyward has severely underachieved based on his body type and his expected performance. Although he has always been compared against his contemporary in Giancarlo Stanton, Stanton has proven to be an outfielder in a whole other class from other top outfielders. However, it is still obvious from Heyward’s per season Weighted Runs Above Average (WRAA), he has produced at a consistent rate of 15 to 20 runs of offensive production per season for the past 4 seasons. In addition, going into his age 26 season, Heyward should break out based on the performance of players of comparable nature such as Carlos Beltran and Matt Kemp, who both saw their peak performances after their age 25 season.

With a new team and a new hitting philosophy in St. Louis, Jason Heyward looks to breakout in the upcoming season. Even though everyone in St. Louis can expect another solid season from Heyward in the form of a 5 WAR or greater season, Jason Heyward still has a lot of room to grow as a hitter. In the outfield, it is no question that he is part of an elite selection of supremely athletic ballplayers that can change the course of a game with consistent spectacular plays on defense. As a hitter, if Heyward can show some patience at the plate and look for his pitches to hit against lefties, he should figure to improve dramatically and provide more flexibility in the Cardinals lineup as a middle of the order bat.

NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 11/29/14

By Sanjay Pothula
AriBall.com

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