On December 5th, the Yankees acquired Didi Gregorius, a shortstop, in a 3-team trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Detroit Tigers. The deal involved the Yankees trading a reliable starter in Shane Greene. As a top 100 prospect by Baseball America in 2012, Didi Gregorius has shown flashes of being an above average shortstop, but for the most part he has shown to be inconsistent as the starting shortstop in Arizona during the 2013 and 2014 season.
The high potential of Didi can be noted by the first half of his rookie year in 2013. In this span, he batted .275 with a .341 OBP and a .403 SLG. As a whole offensively, he was able to achieve WRC+ of 102, which means he created 2% more runs than the league average. As a 22 year old rookie, those type of statistics are pretty good and shows a lot of projectability as an above average shortstop going into the future. However, since the second half of 2013, Didi has underperformed with his bat and his glove. In 2014, in a 299 plate appearances span, he batted .226 with a .290 OBP and a .363 SLG. Worst of all, he had a 76 WRC+, 24% below the league average. Although being distinguished in the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks system as having the best glove in each respective farm system, he heavily underperformed with a UZR per 150 games of -6.7, ranking him near the bottom of the league for shortstops with over 500 innings under their belt in 2014.
Source: Fangraphs
Now, you may be wondering, the Yankees must be crazy to trade a middle of the rotation piece in Shane Greene for a middling, still raw shortstop in Didi Gregorius. Shane Greene proved to be a surprise player in 2014 for the Yankees by coming in July and filling in for injured starters such as CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka. From July to the end of the season, he logged 14 starts and achieved a 3.78 ERA with a 3.73 FIP and strikeouts per 9 innings of 9.27. In general, he shows a lot of projectability as a possible reliable third starter with a fastball-sinker combo that tops out at 96 MPH and 3 other pitches within his arsenal. However, it is important to note that Greene had never been considered a heralded prospect in the minors. It is an interesting situation, in which, Shane Greene had always shown above-average strikeout rates (3 year average of 8 SO/9) during his minor league career, but had always struggled with his control (3 year average of 3.22 BB/9). So, it is possible that Greene’s success in the Majors was luck, but it is hard to argue that it is not sustainable with his ability to maintain a consistent above-average strikeout rate and high ground ball rate throughout his 2014 campaign. You can see this trade in two ways; either the Yankees see Shane Greene regressing based on a small sample size of success in the Majors or the market for hitters is extremely scarce. I am personally a believer in the latter because, in my opinion, projectable near future back-end starters, in theory, should hold more value on a win-now team like the Yankees compared to raw, unfulfilled talent in Didi Gregorius. Nevertheless, it is easy to see with the turn of the century that pitchers have begun to dominate and runs are being scored at a rate well below the 1990s.
From 2000 to 2013, Runs and Walks have decreased. While, Strikeouts have increased. Really, this graphic shows that quality hitting has become more scarce since 2000.
More evidently, hitting performance has decreased as overall OPS has decreased steadily from 2000 to 2013.
Didi Gregorius’ price seems to be expensive to the naked eye, but the Yankees are hoping that Didi can fulfill the potential that had been bestowed on him at a young age. There are two signs that point to Didi performing well under the bright lights of Broadway.
First, in Arizona, he did not receive adequate playing time and was constantly under pressure of losing his starting shortstop spot to other top prospects within the organization. Diamondbacks constantly rotated Didi with Chris Owings and Nick Ahmed during the 2014 season. For pretty much, the whole season, there were questions on whether Owings or Didi were going to be traded. With no legitimate starting shortstop in the Bronx and in its minor league system, Didi Gregorius could potentially cement himself as the main shortstop in New York for the future.
Second, Didi shows some comparable traits that allowed Curtis Granderson to break out when he was traded to the Yankees for the 2010 season. The biggest similarity between the two players are their low line drive rates and high flyball rates as lefty hitters. As theorized in the past, Curtis Granderson’s propensity for triples in Tigers Stadium as a lefty was thought to translate well to the short right field porch in Yankees stadium. Within a three year span from 2007 to 2009 in Detroit, Granderson hit 44 triples with a flyball rate above 40%. Although Granderson had been part of the elite 20-20-20 (home runs, triples, stolen bases), no one expected him to have consecutive 40 home run seasons from 2011 to 2012. I am not justifying the fact that Didi will become a 40 home run hitter because Didi has never shown that power in the past. While, Granderson had multiple seasons of above 20 home runs with the Tigers before his arrival to the Bronx. However, during this past season, Didi hit an adjusted (500 PA) 10 homeruns and 11 triples with a flyball rate of 42.9%. So, it is very possible that Didi Gregorius could become a 15-20 home run hitter down the road because the short right field porch that tends to be advantageous to lefty batters in Yankees Stadium.
Source: Fangraphs
Source: Fangraphs
Didi Gregorius has shown high flyball rates (similar to Curtis Granderson) and strength in his pull hits toward right field, which should prove to advantageous in Yankee Stadium.
There will never be another Yankee shortstop that can replace Derek Jeter as a leader and a clutch player. However, Didi Gregorius provides the best option for the New York Yankees for the 2014 season with Brendan Ryan and Stephen Drew as the only backup options at short. The glove for Didi should not be a question as he has shown to scouts in the past, but his future as the starting shortstop with the Yankees will dependent on his bat. If he can translate his high propensity for triples and high flyball rates to Yankee stadium into more home runs, he could prove to be a valuable commodity in New York and be a welcome addition to its loyal fans. With a more structured environment in the Bronx, Didi Gregorius should prove to be a better player than the 2014 version of Derek Jeter, who had a Win Above Replacement below 0.
Source: imgflip
NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 12/07/14
By Sanjay Pothula
AriBall.com
