As I have mentioned in a previous article, Wil Myers has the potential to be a 20-25 home run and an above average OPS+ player going into the future. With better lineup protection in San Diego with new additions in Matt Kemp and Justin Upton, Myers could possibly see better contact numbers and rejuvenation in his power numbers. However, the Padres must answer one looming issue going into the 2015 season with all of these new additions. The question is; who is going to play center field in the spacious Petco Park? As of now, the Padres have maintained that Wil Myers will be the starting center fielder for the team. Still, we must wonder does he have the ability to patrol Petco Park’s center field in a viable manner.
In 2009, the Kansas City Royals drafted Wil Myers to originally be a catcher. Yet, in early scouting reports, he was noted for having the flexibility to play many positions such as 3rd base and the outfield because of his good arm strength. After two seasons of playing catcher in the lower minor leagues, the Royals converted Myers into an outfielder in 2011, in which he played all three outfield spots. Although he has played the center field position during his time in Kansas City’s Omaha Triple-A affiliate, the switch from a minor league outfield to a major league outfield can be a daunting change for any center fielder. As you can see from the image below, the outfield of Werner Park in Omaha is tremendously smaller than Petco Park’s outfield. Wil Myers’ experience in center field at the minor league level, at least, provides some hope that he could possibly play the position at the major league level. However, it does not provide the best supporting evidence because of the significant outfield area difference between Petco Park and Werner Park.
Overlay image of Werner Park, the Kansas City Royal’s Triple-A affiliate stadium, on Petco Park.
To best examine Wil Myers’ ability to patrol center field in Petco Park, we must explore Myers’ effectiveness in his preferred position of right field. In 2014, he manned right field for over 650 innings. In those 600 plus innings, he had a UZR/150 (ultimate zone rating per 150 games) of 2.5. In other words, Wil Myers saved 2.5 runs on a 150 game scale factoring in his range of movement, arm, and errors committed compared to the league average at the right field position. By this standard, Wil Myers would be considered a notch above league average in defense compared to all right fielders with 600+ innings at the position.
Source: Fangraphs
However, one particular statistic in UZR should be singularly focused upon in an analysis of Wil Myers’ effectiveness in center field. This statistic is RngR (range runs above average). As identified by his 2014 statistics, Wil Myers had an RngR of -0.9, which means he was just below average in his field coverage of right field. In order to really get a full feel for Wil Myers’ lack of range in right field, it is best to compare his fielding data against Will Venable, who patrolled 400+ innings in right field for the Padres. In purely statistics, Venable had an RngR of 5.3, which means he saved 5.3 runs above the league average in his field coverage of right field. Now taking statistics out of the equation and looking purely at data points (gif below) in plays made at the right field position, it is obvious that the change from Will Venable to Wil Myers in right field will be a huge downgrade on its own.
Now building off the assumption that Myers’ lack of range will definitely be a hindrance to his fielding performance in Petco Park’s spacious right field. A position adjustment should prove to be disastrous for the Padres’ because, as well known in the concept of defensive spectrum, not many players switch successfully from a corner outfield spot to a center field spot. This is based on the idea that center fielders tend to be great fielders in their own right compared to corner outfield spots. If we are willing to assume that Wil Myers is about league average in fielding for a corner outfielder, a position adjustment could factor in a ten run decrease in UZR. This decrease will effectively put Myers’ in the bottom 10% of all center fielders in UZR. Factoring in the additions of Matt Kemp and Justin Upton to the corner outfield spots, this Padres’ outfield could be one of the worst in the MLB, a far cry from being ranked 14th in 2014.
The two saving graces that provide some hope to the Wil Myers’ in center field experiment are the new dimensions of Petco Park and the dense air of San Diego. In 2012, Petco Park’s right field wall was brought in ten feet and the height of the outfield wall was reduced from ten feet to eight feet. The change has definitely had pronounced effects on home runs. Petco Park has gone from utterly suppressing home runs to being close to league average in home run totals. In any analysis of Petco Park’s park factor, we must also address air density. As covered by Beyond the Box Score, a one-inch increase in barometer can decrease a 400-foot fly ball by six feet. In the past, assumed home runs in other stadiums would ultimately result in triples in Petco Park because of the naturally high barometric air pressure of San Diego and the spacious outfield. However, if we factor in the change of Petco Park to being more neutral and control for the barometric air pressure of San Diego, snagging flyballs in the outfield should theoretically be easier with less ground to cover.
With the change in dimensions in 2012, Petco Park has become more accommodating to home runs in recent years.
Source: Fangraphs
With all the evidence in place, can Wil Myers make the switch from right field to center field? The only evidence supporting the claim that Myers can play the center field position effectively is his previous experience at the position in the minors and the newly reduced dimensions of Petco Park. However, if we take out the speculative possibilities of this experiment, the factual data of Wil Myers paints the picture that his arm has made up for his lack of range in right field during his time in the majors. To think that Myers could play a position like center field effectively, which is dependent on range, would be outlandish. For all I know, it is possible that Wil Myers could play center field decently with better familiarity with the position and better route efficiency. However, with the data present on Myers’ past fielding, the likelihood of Myers’ being even an average center fielder is unlikely.
Last season, Cameron Maybin was ranked 15th in defense among all center fielders in the MLB. The switch from Maybin to
Myers should be a significant downgrade and place the Padres easily within the bottom half of the league in center field
defense.
Citation:
"Baseball Extras: Physics of Baseball." Baseball Extras: Physics of Baseball. N.p., n.d. Web.
27 Dec. 2014.
Minnix, Nicholas. "A.J. Preller Allays Allure of Petco Park Pitchers | FanGraphs Fantasy
Baseball." A.J. Preller Allays Allure of Petco Park Pitchers | FanGraphs Fantasy
Baseball. Fangraphs, n.d. Web. 27 Dec. 2014.
Townsend, Mark. "Photos: First Look at Petco Park's New Dimensions."Yahoo Sports.
Yahoo, n.d. Web. 27 Dec. 2014.
Zimmerman, Jeff. "How Much Do Natural Effects (temperature, Air Pressure and Elevation)
Change the Distance a Baseball Is Hit?"Beyond the Box Score. N.p., 16 Nov. 2008.
Web. 27 Dec. 2014.
NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 12/27/14
By Sanjay Pothula
AriBall.com
