By Tom McFeeley, AriBall.com
What made Zack Greinke so good in 2015? To nobody’s surprise, Zack Greinke opted out of his Dodgers contract and became a free agent. He, along with David Price, will be the most sought after pitchers on the market this winter.
We at AriBall wanted to take a look at his Cy Young-worthy season to see what, if anything, changed in 2015 to make him a top-flight ace.
In his three seasons with the Dodgers, he has gone 51-15, a number that might make Tom Brady and his head coach jealous. He posted ERAs of 2.63, 2.71 and 1.66 in those seasons. He has walked fewer batters in each of his last two seasons. Hitters hit just .185 against him this season compared to .245 in 2014.
These are numbers and trends that will make the 32-year-old a very, very rich man this winter. Perhaps, given his age and an assumption/hope that he will repeat his 2015 success, he will earn more than he’s actually worth. But only time will tell about that.
Let’s look at his 2015 to try to explain his newfound untouchable status.
His velocity (91.8 on his fastball) has remained constant; his spin rates haven’t changed to any significant degree. His control, as noted, has improved.
What has changed is his strikeout rate (8.08 K/9 in 2015, down from 9.21 K/9 in 2014); his fly ball percentage rose to 32.9 percent from 28.5 percent, about a 15 percent hike. All those would normally give me pause, but his BABIP was an ungodly .229 down from .311 last year. His strand rate (LOB%) was also unworldly at 86.5, “up” from 79.7 percent, both well above league average. BABIP can be construed as a luck stat and certainly some of this year’s improvement can be chalked up to fortune. But the best pitchers routinely have BABIPs below league average (The Mets three aces were all between .275 and .280 this season, against the MLB average of about .295). And aces strand more runners on average.
What changed? Greinke intentionally pitched to more contact this year. Not because he trusted his defense more, but because he knew how to generate weaker contact.
Here is Greinke’s new pitching philosophy in two charts. His 2014 pitch locations are on the left; his 2015 locations on the right. These charts are against right handed hitters only:
Never one to pitch too often inside, Zack “Don’t Call Me Donald” Greinke dramatically shifted his approach in 2015. In 2014, he pitched to the outside third and away from the plate 43 percent of the time; in this past season he increased that to 52 percent. It’s just 9 percentage points, but a 21 percent increase in frequency from 2014. He pitched inside and the inner third of the plate just 10 percent of the time, down from 18 percent, or a factor of 44 percent.
The result was fewer ground balls and more fly balls, yes, but those fly balls were generally weak outs to right field. Pitches inside result in ground balls, which become hits at a much higher rate. Greinke eschewed a few strikeouts in order to induce weaker contact.
When both his BABIP and batting average against plummet, you have to assume a change in tactics has as much to do with it as any luck might.
That kind of adjustment, particularly at age 32, is something that will attract the attention of general managers. Here we have a pitcher who doesn’t throw particularly hard but knows how to miss bats, changing his approach to become more efficient and successful. As his skills begin to deteriorate in the coming seasons, baseball executives will have the confidence that Greinke will make the proper adjustments to his game and be less likely to become a free agent bust than other pitchers might.
By Tom McFeeley, AriBall.com
