Even though the Major League Baseball season has just recently ended, we have already seen some front office’s make strategic moves. With that said, the attention grabbing “blockbuster” has not been announced. Historically speaking, some monumental deals in hindsight have occurred before the Thanksgiving turkey was served. So, cue the ominous music and let’s see what the appetite might be for Jeff “Shark” Samardzija.
The former Notre Dame All-American has tremendous physical presence, but after being moved prior to the trade deadline in 2014, the former Cubbie has not been able to settle in with a club. Samardzija is entering his age 31 season and is coming off of a less than stellar year. With over 20 starting pitchers in his age group that are available on the free agency market, there might not be a “feeding frenzy” for the fiery right-hander.
Since becoming a full-time starter in 2012, Samardzija has posted the following numbers: 35-52, 4.03 ERA, 126 GS, 820.6 innings, 759 SO, 226 BB, 3.69 FIP, 6.7 WAR (Baseball-Reference). That averages out to over 31 starts per year at 205 innings, 190 SO, with 56 BB, and ratios of 8.375 SO9/2.5 BB9 respectively.
Some of the decision makers in the game use adjectives like “gritty”, “worker”, “grinder” and “winner” to describe the the 6’5” ex-college football Tight End. Even though Samardzija has unimpressive surface numbers, is there something lurking beyond the deep waters of ‘big data”? For starters, Samardzjia has never been on the disabled list and has established himself as a “workhorse” who eats up innings. His average velocity on his fastball has been approximately 94.2 MPH in 2015 versus 94.6 MPH over the previous three year period. So, contrary to some scouting reports, Samardzjia’s velocity was not down dramatically even though his strikeout rate was down 51% in 2015 compared to the previous three year period.
Some interesting observations were made concerning “Shark’s” pitch selection and spin rate of certain pitches in his repertoire. According to AriBall, Samardzjia’s four seam fastball was thrown almost 13% less in 2015 compared to the previous three year period, but the cutter was thrown over 10% more and the slider was thrown over 4% more. Upon further investigation, it was discovered that the the spin rate on both cutter and slider were substantially different than the average for a right-handed pitcher. For example, the cutter spun at 1747 RPM in 2015 versus 1291 RPM and the slider spun at 593 RPM versus the 834 RPM average for right-handed pitchers. These numbers would suggest that there was a change in pitching strategy with the White Sox and quite possibly the A’s. Maybe even a different philosophy altogether considering Samardzjia switched league’s in 2014. In my estimation, Samardzjia altered his approach by working against the strength of his powerful swing/miss four seamer. The above averaged velocity coupled with good vertical drop induced more ground balls in previous years. Finally, the increased use of both slider and cut fastball during the 2015 campaign became problematic due to lack of movement on the slider and too much spin on the cutter. Because of this, more balls were hit harder in the air and Samardzjia was more susceptible to the long ball.
So, after receiving $9.8 million for the 2015 season, Samardzjia turned down the White Sox $15.8 million qualifying offer, (which will cost the signing club a draft pick) confirming that the “tough-minded” starter is holding out for a multi-year deal. Samardzija’s 1.675 annualized average WAR over the previous four seasons, equates to approximately $11,725,00 for a yearly contract break-even point.That is provided you accept a win being valued at approximately $7 million and actually subscribe to the metrics of Wins Above Replacement. If so, what clubs’ are willing to take a bite and what’s considered fair market value?
Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors, reported on November 19th that Jeff Samardzjia was contacted by Theo Epstein, Cubs President of Baseball Operations, who seems to be entertaining the possibility of a reunion. As most savvy baseball people know, Epstein has been a baseball analytics “true-believer” which begs the question, “What other hidden value exists?” Regardless, Samardzjia’s sturdy frame and ability to log innings have created a ripple effect in the free agent waters. According to Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago, the close relationship between Chicago Cubs Pitching Coach, Chris Bosio and Samardzjia could be the deciding factor for the “homecoming”.
Anyway, Thanksgiving is a time when we usually take comfort traveling home to be with friends and family. So, is this the year that “Shark” comes back to the North Side, gobbles up innings, shreds bats, and feasts on that holiday roast like "Bruce" the shark in that JAWS classic?
NOTE: All statistics accurate as of 11/26/15
By Vincent Scotto
AriBall.com
